Just two weeks remain in the NBA regular season, but playoff positioning is up for grabs in both conferences. 

The Western Conference has become a wild race for the No. 3 spot behind the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs (both teams are in action tonight) while the Eastern Conference has the No. 5 seed and the No. 10 seed separated by just 3.5 games. 

On Monday, there are 16 teams in action, though several stars are out of the lineup, including Cade Cunningha, Luka Doncic (suspension) and more. 

I’m eyeing several prop bets for tonight’s slate, including a prop bet for Philadelphia 76ers guard Tyrese Maxey, who is playing in his second game back after a finger injury.

Let’s dive into the odds and analysis for each of these player picks on Monday night. 

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record2025-26 season record: 227-182 (+9.55 units)2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1518-1419-27 (+42.70 units)

Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Tyrese Maxey OVER 27.5 Points (-112)Oklahoma City Thunder -11.5 (-115) vs. Detroit PistonsBoston Celtics-Minnesota Timberwolves Parlay (-115)Tyrese Maxey OVER 27.5 Points (-112)

Tyrese Maxey is averaging 28.9 points per game this season, and he returned to put up 26 points on 18 shots in over 40 minutes on Saturday in a huge win over Charlotte.

Maxey had 28 points on a poor shooting night (9-for-26) in his last game against the Miami Heat, and I love him in this market since it’s clear his role is not going to diminish even though he’s coming off an injury.

The Heat are in the bottom 10 in the NBA in opponent points per game, mainly because they play at the fastest pace in the league. Over their last 10 games, the Heat are just 23rd in the league in defensive rating.

Maxey has been in the mix to averaging 30 points per game this season, and he’s taking a career high 21.8 shots per game while leading the league in minutes per game. He’s worth a look with this prop set below his season average on Monday night. 

Oklahoma City Thunder -11.5 (-115) vs. Detroit Pistons

The Oklahoma City Thunder have struggled against the spread on the second night of a back-to-back this season, going 3-9 against the spread, but I’m buying them on Monday against the Detroit Pistons.

The Pistons are down Cade Cunningham in this game, and they’ve listed Jalen Duren as doubtful along with Tobias Harris and Duncan Robinson. I don’t want to say the Pistons are punting this game, but the injury report suggests that they’ll be at way less than full strength on Monday.

Meanwhile, OKC is in a battle for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, and it could lose ground to the San Antonio Spurs (18.5-point favorites against Chicago tonight) with a loss. So, I expect OKC to play the majority of its rotation players at home. 

The Thunder have an average scoring margin of +11.7 points per game at home this season, and they should be able to beat a Pistons team that is expected to be down two All-Stars and several rotation players. 

Detroit has been rolling since Cunningham went down with a collapsed lung, but I can’t get behind a makeshift roster on Monday night. 

Boston Celtics-Minnesota Timberwolves Parlay (-115)

I’m eyeing a two-team parlay on Monday night, featuring one moneyline pick and one alternate spread pick. 

Boston Celtics +7.5 (-272)Minnesota Timberwolves Moneyline (-270)

Boston Celtics

Boston has yet to release an injury report for the second night of a back-to-back against the Atlanta Hawks, but it showed on Sunday that it can win short-handed against the Charlotte Hornets.

Jayson Tatum had a massive game with Jaylen Brown (Achilles) sidelined, and the C’s improved to an impressive 8-1 straight up when Brown sits this season.

So, I don’t think it’s crazy to expect Boston to cover this number on Monday night.

The C’s already beat the Hawks without Brown on Friday by seven points, and Atlanta – despite a recent stretch of winning – is seven games under .500 (20-27) against teams that are .500 or better this season. 

Atlanta does have the sixth-best net rating in the league over its last 10 games, but it still lost outright to Boston (and failed to cover) on Friday. I expect Boston to hang around and potentially pull off yet another upset win on Monday.

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Timberwolves are expected to get Anthony Edwards back in action on Monday, which is a huge boost for them against a tanking Dallas Mavericks team.

Dallas is 3-7 in its last 10 games, but it ranks 22nd in the NBA in net rating (-6.4) during that stretch. In fact, since the All-Star break, the Mavs have a net rating of -8.9 (24th in the NBA). 

Meanwhile, Minnesota is still in the mix for a top-four seed in the Western Conference and survived a six-game stretch without Edwards, going 4-2. The Wolves are an impressive 23-8 against teams that are under .500 this season, and they’ve beaten Dallas by 24, 13 and 11 in the 2025-26 season. 

I’ve been fading tanking teams for a few weeks now, and that doesn’t change – especially if Edwards returns to his usual role on Monday.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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