Alex Hunter breaks down his preview, prediction and pick for Monday’s NBA matchup between the Celtics and the Hawks.
The Hawks are hosting the Celtics on Monday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Atlanta is favored by 2.5 points and the game carries a total of 222.5 points.
Let’s dive into my preview and pick for this matchup.
Celtics vs. Hawks preview
The Celtics and Hawks have been two of the best teams in the league since the All-Star break. Over this time, Atlanta is 16-3 and ranks third in net rating while Boston is 15-5 and ranks fifth in net rating. The Celtics are 2-1 in this season series, and these clubs just met this past Friday night when the Celtics defeated the Hawks 109-102 in Boston. Prior to this, Atlanta had won 14 of its previous 15 games.
The Celtics won that game despite Jaylen Brown being inactive, and in his absence, Jayson Tatum scored 26 points as Payton Pritchard went off for 36 points off the bench. For tonight’s rematch, Brown will be back in the lineup after missing two in a row with left Achilles tendonitis. Tatum will be rested with this being Boston’s second game in two nights. Last night, the Celtics beat the Hornets 114-99 in Charlotte. Along with Brown, Derrick White missed this game with a knee contusion, but listed as probable, he will likely return tonight. On top of Tatum, Neemias Queta is listed as doubtful and expected to be out tonight, as the big man is dealing with a sprained thumb.
Tatum and Queta are two of the Celtics’ top-five players in net rating this season, so them being out is a big loss. Boston is 3-1 with both Tatum and Queta out, but the problem is that the lone loss came against the Hawks when they defeated the Celtics 117-106 in Atlanta on January 28th.
Boston turned it over 16 times that night, which was a rare sight as the team ranks first in turnovers per game this season with just 12.2. The Celtics turning it over at a high clip again tonight is unlikely, but Boston’s defense could suffer without Tatum and Queta. Tatum has been elite defensively since returning and Queta has been been one of the top defensive centers in the NBA this season. With both Queta and Nikola Vucevic (out, finger) missing, Luka Garza should act as Boston’s main center tonight. The veteran is a solid player who should produce a decent stat line, but with Garza on the floor, Boston’s defensive rating is 4.7 points per 100 possessions worse than with him off.
The Celtics could have trouble slowing down the Hawks’ offense tonight, which may be the difference in this game. Atlanta ranks seventh in offensive rating since the All-Star break and the club has scored at least 123 points in four of it’s last five, with that lone outlier coming against the Celtics last Friday, who had Tatum and Queta both active for that game.
To complement their strong offense, the Hawks have been excellent on defense, ranking third in defensive rating since the All-Star break. Jalen Johnson and Nickeil Alexander-Walker are the team’s top two players and both are strong candidates for Most Improved Player of the Year. Johnson is averaging a near triple-double this season and has scored at least 27 points in three straight, while Alexander-Walker is averaging a career-high 20.7 PPG. Before this, he had never averaged more than 12.8 PPG in a season.
Tonight’s matchup is important for both these Eastern Conference teams. The Celtics have a 2.5-game lead on the Knicks for the No. 2 seed and the Hawks are only a half game ahead of the 76ers for the No. 6 seed, which is the final seed that avoids the Play-In Tournament.
Celtics vs. Hawks pick, best Bet
With Tatum and Queta out, Brown and White coming off injuries, and the Celtics playing their second game in two nights, going into Atlanta and getting a win tonight isn’t going to be easy. Boston is 7-4 SU on the second night of back-to-back sets, but the Hawks have won 12 straight at home.
This game should be a nail biter and in the end, Atlanta should come out on top.