Sean Barnard details his preview and prediction for Monday’s game between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Utah Jazz.

Tipping off as part of the eight-game Monday night NBA slate, the Cleveland Cavaliers will take on the Utah Jazz in a cross-conference matchup.

This is the second and final matchup between these two teams this season. The first matchup took place on January 12th, which resulted in a 123-112 win by the Jazz. Plenty has changed for both sides since this point, and the outlook is much different for these respective organizations for the remainder of the year.

Looking at the odds for tonight, the Cavaliers enter as 16.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Jazz hold +900 odds of pulling off the outright upset, with the game total set at 241.5.

Let’s dive into my preview and prediction for this Monday night matchup.

Cavaliers vs. Jazz preview, prediction

The Cleveland Cavaliers sit in fourth place in the East with a 46-28 record. After taking a step back from last season’s stellar record, the organization shook things up by trading for James Harden in a deal centered around Darius Garland at the midpoint of the season. Cleveland is still working toward getting this team fully on the same page, but there have been some encouraging early signs. They enter this matchup coming off a victory over the Heat and have won five of their last six games. On the season, the Cavaliers have gone 30-44 against the spread, and the game total is 36-38 to the over/under.

Injuries are a bit of a factor tonight for both teams. The Cavaliers will be without Jarrett Allen, Jaylon Tyson, Max Strus, and Dean Wade tonight. Donovan Mitchell will continue to headline the production and add to his averages of 27.9 points, 5.8 assists, and 4.0 rebounds per game on the season. Across his first 20 games with the Cavaliers, James Harden is adding 20.8 points, 8.1 assists, and 5.4 rebounds per game. Evan Mobley adds 18.2 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 3.6 assists, while Sam Merrill, Keon Ellis, and Dennis Schroder each also play key roles in the rotation.

As a team, the Cavaliers rank third in the league in scoring by dropping 119.4 points per game. Cleveland also ranks sixth in offensive rating, eighth in field goal percentage, and 12th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 115.2 points per game against the Cavaliers, which ranks 15th in the league. Cleveland also ranks 13th in defensive rating, ninth in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 25th in opponents’ three-point percentage.

The Utah Jazz hold a 21-54 record on the season, which slots them at 14th place in the Western Conference. They enter this matchup on a five-game losing streak and have lost nine of their last 10. The organization has laid the foundation for a leap forward into contention moving forward and seen some positive flashes this season, but are content limping to the finish line and further maximizing their draft lottery odds. On the season, the Jazz have gone 38-37 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 45 of their 75 games played.

A loaded injury report is a typical occurrence for this Jazz team, and the same is true tonight. Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr., Keyonte George, Jusuf Nurkic, Walker Kessler, and Isaiah Collier will all remain sidelined for tonight’s game. While the stakes of the game may not carry the same weight from an organizational standpoint, every player on the floor is still playing with a high level of motivation as they look to cement their standings in the NBA and a future with this Jazz team. Expect Kyle Filipowski, Brice Sensabaugh, and Ace Bailey to headline this effort.

Utah is scoring 117.4 points per game this season, which ranks ninth in the NBA. The Jazz also rank third in pace, 20th in offensive rating, 16th in field goal percentage, and 25th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 125.4 points per game against Utah, which ranks dead last in the NBA. Will Hardy’s squad also ranks 30th in defensive rating, 28th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 27th in opponents’ three-point percentage.

Cavaliers vs. Jazz prediction, best bet

The gap in motivation between these franchises is even greater than the 16.5-point spread indicates. Cleveland needs as many reps together as possible as they look to build some momentum heading into the postseason, while the Jazz are fully evaluating which of their current young talent will stick around. But this youthful energy brings a spark that allows them to hang around in games they probably shouldn’t, and it concerns me betting against them on such a massive number. This is especially the case with the Cavaliers lacking a bit of the killer instinct as an organization, and their 30-44 against the spread record being the worst in the NBA. Utah picked up an outright victory, 123-112, in the first matchup between these two sides as evidence of this.

Instead, I am expecting plenty of points and backing the game total to go over the 241.5 line. Cleveland ranks third in the league in scoring and will be facing the worst defense in the NBA. The Cavaliers dropped a season-high 149 points in their previous game against the Heat and have scored 130+ in 18 games this season. Expect this to remain the case as they face off with a Jazz team that has allowed 129+ points in 32 games this year. Utah has allowed 134+ points in each of its past four games.

On the other side of the matchup, the Jazz are capable of putting up points in their own right. They have scored 150+ points twice this year and rank ninth in the league in scoring on the season. The youthful roster looks to push the pace and get out in transition at a frequent rate. Expect them to have success against a mediocre Cavaliers’ defense with a few exploitable players.

The game total has gone over in 45 of the 75 games played by the Jazz this season overall. This includes five straight games entering this matchup, and the over is 24-9 this season when they are a home underdog. The game total has also gone over in six of the last nine games the Cavaliers have played, and is 16-9 on the season when they are a road favorite.

Lace up the track shoes for an up-tempo scoring matchup as plenty of points are put on the board and the game total clears the 241.5 line tonight.

Best Bet: Game Total Over 241.5 (-108)