Sean Barnard details his preview and prediction for Sunday’s game between the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers.

Tipping off as part of the nine-game Sunday night slate, the Miami Heat will take on the Indiana Pacers in an Eastern Conference clash.

This will mark the third and final matchup between these two teams this season. The Heat picked up a 142-116 win in the first matchup, but the Pacers won the most recent game, 123-99. Tonight will settle the season series, but both teams have very different outlooks on the season. Miami is firmly in the play-in mix and looking to climb the standings, while Indiana holds the worst record in the NBA.

The Heat enter as 9.5-point favorites and hold -395 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Pacers hold +310 odds of winning outright, with the game total set at O/U 246.5 points.

Let’s dive into my preview and prediction for this Sunday late-afternoon matchup.

Heat vs. Pacers preview, prediction

The Heat sit in ninth place in the Eastern Conference with a 39-35 record. They are a half-game behind the Magic for the eighth seed and hold the same record as the Charlotte Hornets, so it will be a tight seeding race during the final stretch of the season. The Heat have not leaped at the opportunity to this point, as they have dropped six of their past seven games. On the season, the Heat are 43-31 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 40 of 74 games.

The Heat lead the NBA in pace and rank second in scoring with 120.3 points per game. They rank 13th in offensive rating, 19th in field-goal percentage, and 17th in three-point percentage. Defensively, Miami ranks 22nd in points allowed by conceding 117.7 points per game. Miami also ranks seventh in defensive rating, eighth in opponents’ field goal percentage and sixth in opponents’ three-point percentage.

Norman Powell has been ruled out for tonight’s game with an upper respiratory illness, leaving the Heat to make up for his 22.1 points per game. Tyler Herro will take on the bulk of these responsibilities and look to add to his 20.9 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per game. Bam Adebayo is posting averages of 20.2 points, 9.9 rebounds, and 3.0 assists, while Kel’el Ware, Davion Mitchell, Jaime Jaquez Jr., and Andrew Wiggins each play notable roles.

It feels crazy to think that this time last year, the Pacers were gearing up for an NBA Finals run. This season, they hold the worst record in the league at 15-58 and enter tonight having lost back-to-back games and 18 of their last 19. On the season, the Pacers have gone 34-40 against the spread, and the game total is 37-37 to the over/under.

Indiana is scoring 111.9 points per game, which ranks 27th in the NBA. It also ranks 29th in offensive rating, 27th in field goal percentage and 20th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 120.6 points per game against the Pacers, which ranks 26th in the league. Indiana also ranks 27th in defensive rating, 28th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 13th in opponents’ three-point percentage.

Tyrese Haliburton remains sidelined for the season as he recovers from his Achilles tear. Johnny Furphy and Ivica Zubac each joined him on the sidelines, while Aaron Nesmith is doubtful for today. Pascal Siakam, Andrew Nembhard, Obi Toppin, T.J. McConnell, and Jarace Walker are each listed as questionable for tonight. Expect Jay Huff, Kobe Brown, Ben Sheppard, and Kobe Brown to all play notable roles.

Heat vs. Pacers prediction, best bet

The Heat are looking to finish the season strong in order to paint as promising a path through the postseason as possible. They have been in the play-in tournament in three straight seasons and are faced with the same fate. However, the product they have put on the floor of late has not been particularly encouraging. The Heat have lost six of their last seven games, and they need to get back on the right path. This is an excellent opportunity to do so, and I like the Heat to accomplish this by winning and covering the spread tonight.

In the first matchup between these two teams, the Heat outclassed the Pacers in a 142-116 win, as they outperformed Indiana in every notable stat category. They last played on January 10th, with the Pacers winning 123-99. This marked the 11th-highest scoring total of the Pacers’ season, and one of five games all season the Heat have failed to crack 100 points. Miami shot 4-for-30 (13%) on three-point attempts, and no Heat player scored more than 21 points. This was the team’s worst perimeter shooting effort of the season.

Expect the third matchup to look closer to what occurred the first time these two teams faced off, and brush off the second game as an outlier shooting performance. The Pacers deserve some credit for continuing to play with a spark even with the bleak outlook, but injuries are a factor, and they lack enough legitimate offensive creators to put up a true fight in this game.

The Heat are 24-15 against the spread when playing on equal rest, 21-16 ATS at home, and 43-31 ATS on the season. Expect Miami to have an offensive punch that Indiana cannot match, and for the desperation the Heat need to play with to show. The Heat have picked up 25 of their 39 wins by 10 points or greater and have a more reliable offense and should push this to a win to cover the 9.5-point spread.

Best Bet: Heat -9.5 (-112)