There’s a good chance the Mountain West has only one team in this year’s NCAA Tournament.

If that ends up being the case, it’d be a major disappointment considering the conference had been elite in men’s basketball in recent years, stringing together four straight seasons with at least four spots in the Big Dance with a MW-best six in 2024.

But ESPN’s latest Bracketology features just Utah State as a No. 8 seed with Boise State the only MW school among the “next eight out,” and that was before the Broncos lost at home to Grand Canyon by 17 points to fall to 1-3 in league play.

So, what’s the issue with the MW this season? It seems to be related to this story, which is The Athletic’s top-100 NBA draft Big Board published Wednesday. Guess how many MW players are on the list? Zero. There are four former MW players in the top 100 in Darrion Williams (now at NC State), J.T. Toppin (Texas Tech), Donovan Dent (UCLA) and Nick Boyd (Wisconsin). And therein lies the problem.

The problem is not specifically those players, but the fact the MW lacks top-end, NBA-draft star power. Last season, it had those kinds of players in Dent, Boise State’s Tyson Degenhart, Utah State’s Ian Martinez, Colorado State’s Nique Clifford and Nevada’s Kobe Sanders, the latter two drafted by NBA teams. To assess the level of talent in the MW this season, I looked at BartTorvik’s PRPG! stat, which stands for “Points Over Replacement Per Adjusted Game At That Usage!”

Last year, the MW had three of the top-30 players in the nation in PRPG!; this year, it has one.

Last year, the MW had five players in the top 70; this year, it is three.

Last year, the MW had seven players in the top 100; this year, it has three.

Last year, the MW had nine players in the top 150; this year, it has four.

Last year, the MW had 11 players in the top 245; this year, it has six.

This is pretty obvious, right? Last year’s MW had better players. No duh. But this year’s MW actually has more depth. Below is a league breakdown of MW players by PRPG!, including rankings of 5.0 or higher (league player of the year territory); 4.0 or higher (first-team All-MW territory); 3.0 or higher (second- and third-team All-MW territory); 2.0 of higher (starting-level player); and 1.0 or higher (reserve). Here are the results. (I included Grand Canyon’s numbers in last year’s stats since the Antelopes are now in the MW to ensure an equal number of teams in both seasons.)

Last season’s MW by PRPG!

5.0+ — 3 players — Boise State’s Tyson Degenhart (5.7), Colorado State’s Nique Clifford (5.1), New Mexico’s Donovan Dent (5.0)

4.0+ — 6 players — Add Utah State’s Ian Martinez (4.4), Nevada’s Kobe Sanders (4.4), Nevada’s Nick Davidson (4.2)

3.0+ — 18 players — Add Boise State’s Andrew Meadow (3.8), Boise State’s Alvaro Cardenas (3.7), Utah State’s Mason Falslev (3.7), San Jose State’s Josh Uduje (3.4), Wyoming’s Obi Agbim (3.4), San Diego State’s Nick Boyd (3.3), New Mexico’s Nelly Junior Joseph (3.2), UNLV’s Dedan Thomas Jr. (3.2), Grand Canyon’s JaKobe Coles (3.0)

2.0+ — 32 players

1.0+ — 68 players

This season’s MW by PRPG!

5.0+ — 1 player — Utah State’s MJ Collins (5.4)

4.0+ — 4 players — Add San Jose State’s Colby Garland (4.7), Colorado State’s Kyle Jorgensen (4.6), Colorado State’s Carey Booth (4.0)

3.0+ — 16 players — Add Utah State’s Mason Falslev (3.9), SDSU’s BJ Davis (3.7), Boise State’s Andrew Meadow (3.4), Colorado State’s Josh Pascarelli (3.4), Boise State’s Javan Buchanan (3.2), Nevada’s Corey Camper Jr. (3.2), Utah State’s Garry Clark (3.1), New Mexico’s Tomislav Buljan (3.0), Wyoming’s Leland Walker (3.0), Colorado State’s Brandon Rechsteiner (3.0), Fresno State’s Jake Heidbreder (3.0)

2.0+ — 36 players

1.0+ — 71 players

As you can see, the MW has more players this season with a 1.0 PRPG! or higher with the same true of the 2.0-plus category. The biggest difference is the high-end players. This year’s MW has only one player with a 5.0 PRPG! or higher compared to three last season. This year’s MW has four players with a 4.0 PRPG! or higher compared to six last season. It’s a minor difference that has made a major impact.

The MW had some of the nation’s best players last season, draftable guys. That’s not the case this year, with SDSU’s Miles Byrd, who is having a down season statistically, the only draftable player in the league this season. Given the changes to transfer rules and NIL, the MW’s top players are routinely picked off by Power 4 schools (Dent and Davidson are good examples last offseason). The MW has somehow been able to reload in recent seasons to put at least four teams in the NCAA Tournament every year since 2022, an applaudable development. But that won’t be the case this season. There just aren’t enough stars in the league to power teams to the Big Dance.

Columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at crmurray@sbgtv.com or follow him on Twitter @ByChrisMurray.