Regular-season basketball is starting to feel anything but important for the Memphis Grizzlies. Placement in the reverse standings and the NBA draft itself are essentially all that matter, as elimination from playoff contention and a wave of injuries have taken much of the excitement out of the final weeks.
However, there is still one piece of the puzzle that makes these last days of the season meaningful for the Grizzlies.
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They will be closely monitoring where the Phoenix Suns and Orlando Magic finish in the standings. Memphis is set to have a second first-round pick in this year’s draft, and it will come from one of those two teams.
How that process plays out is a bit complicated, stemming from multiple pick swaps involving five teams. The Charlotte Hornets and Washington Wizards are also part of the equation, but to simplify things, Memphis’ focus can remain on the Suns and Magic.
The NBA draft lottery is set for May 10 in Chicago; the two-day draft will take place June 25-26 at Barclays Center in New York City.
Here’s a breakdown of how the Grizzlies will acquire their second first-round pick.
How the deal came together
The Grizzlies have been strong in stockpiling draft capital to position the organization for a rebuild.
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A June 2025 deal with the Magic is a prime example of how Memphis set itself up to potentially hold multiple first-round picks this season.
The Wizards were part of a 2023 trade that sent star guard Bradley Beal to the Suns. In that deal, Washington acquired the right to swap first-round picks in 2026.
Phoenix later traded swap rights to the Magic, who relinquished their more favorable swap rights when they acquired Desmond Bane from the Grizzlies.
The Hornets come into play after they traded center Mark Williams to the Suns in a deal that included a 2026 first-round swap.
In short, Memphis owns Orlando’s pick and has the ability to swap with Phoenix if the Suns end up with a higher (better) draft position.
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The Wizards cannot swap with Memphis or Orlando, but they can swap with Phoenix if the Suns land ahead of Washington in the lottery — an extremely unlikely outcome. Charlotte would get the worst first-rounder.
Explaining the Grizzlies’ draft outlook
As of March 31, Washington is tied for the worst record in the NBA. If that holds, it cannot fall lower than the fifth pick in the draft.
Washington’s pick is top-eight protected, meaning if the pick falls within the top eight, the Wizards keep it. If they were to go on an unlikely winning streak and fall to ninth, the pick would convey to the New York Knicks.
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As for Phoenix and Orlando, both teams are currently in position to be play-in participants in their respective conferences.
Orlando sits eighth in the Eastern. If that holds, Memphis would need the Magic to lose multiple play-in games and miss the playoffs.
The Suns are seventh in the Western Conference. Memphis also would need Phoenix to lose two play-in games. Given that those games would be played at home, Orlando presents the more realistic path.
Whichever team ends up with the better draft position, Memphis will have the opportunity to claim that pick. Charlotte will receive the lesser of the two options.
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The only scenario in which this does not happen is if Phoenix misses the playoffs and jumps Washington in the draft lottery. In that case, Washington would have first rights to swap with Phoenix.
Memphis could then potentially swap for Washington’s pick if it lands in a more favorable position than Orlando’s.
Yes, it’s complicated.
Odds outlook
With both the Magic and Suns projected to make the playoffs, Memphis’ second pick is expected to land just outside the lottery (top 14).
Having two lottery picks would improve the Grizzlies’ odds of landing a top-four selection. In a best-case scenario, both their own pick and Orlando’s could land in the top two, giving the Grizzlies the first two picks in the draft.
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But back to reality.
The No. 14 pick carries a 2.4% chance of jumping into the top four and a 0.5% chance at No. 1 overall. The No. 13 pick has a 4.8% chance of landing in the top four and a 1% chance at No. 1.
If Phoenix and/or Orlando miss the playoffs, their picks would likely fall in that range.
To sum it up: Memphis will have two first-round picks — its own, plus another projected to land in the mid- to late teens, either from Orlando (a pick it already owns) or Phoenix (via swap rights).
Damichael Cole is the Memphis Grizzlies beat writer for The Commercial Appeal. Contact Damichael at damichael.cole@commercialappeal.com. Follow Damichael on X, formerly known as Twitter, @DamichaelC.
This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: How Suns, Magic factor into Memphis Grizzlies’ first-round NBA draft picks