Bill Yin breaks down his prediction and pick for tonight’s game between the Houston Rockets and Milwaukee Bucks.

The 46-29 Rockets will host the 30-45 Bucks tonight at 8 PM EST. Neither team has submitted their injury report yet.

The Rockets are 17.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook with the total for this game set at 217.5 points.

Rockets vs. Bucks prediction, preview

Houston will try to make this one ugly early tonight, as they’re relentless in gaining possessions while Milwaukee is short handed. The Rockets are coming off three straight wins, featuring a 111-94 beatdown of the Knicks last night during which Kevin Durant scored 27 with eight assists. Reed Sheppard added 20 off the bench, and Houston ended the night with 35 assists on 42 made field goals. The Rockets are 10th in OFFRTG with 116.7 and sixth in DEFRTG with 112.1. Durant’s presence as a half-court offensive engine is a decent fit alongside Alperen Sengun, who can function either as a facilitator out of the post or as a scorer himself if need be. The Amen Thompson/Tari Eason duo is still as advertised defensively, disrupting lazy passes and adding length and pressure to the Rockets’ defense. Ime Udoka recently put Eason into the starting lineup, and he’s been delivering as of late, posting a positive net rating in three straight wins while averaging 16 PPG and 7.6 RPG in these three games.

Milwaukee is coming off a 123-99 win over Dallas, but the picture is still shaky. The Bucks are 30-45, and the current injury list remains brutal. There are still some useful pieces here. Ryan Rollins just posted 24 points, nine assists, and seven rebounds against Dallas. Kyle Kuzma added 20 and Milwaukee moved the ball well enough to finish with 28 assists in that game. But this version of the Bucks feels much thinner structurally, especially without their best player in Antetokounmpo. Milwaukee is at 110.4 PPG, 40.5 RPG, and 25.7 APG on the season. Ryan Rollins is leading the team at 17.1 PPG. Without Giannis and Portis, the Bucks lose too much downhill rim pressure and rebounding, which leaves this team trying to squeeze offense out of ineffective, unreliable offensive options such as Kyle Kuzma and Myles Turner. Turner particularly has been struggling mightily this season. He’s experiencing major regressions in almost all categories during his disastrous first stint with the Bucks.

Rockets vs. Bucks pick, best Bet

Best Bet: HOU Rockets -17.5 (-108)

I’m comfortable trusting the Rockets to cover the spread tonight. This weak Milwaukee team is not going to win many more games from this point onward. The Rockets are on a three game win streak.They’ll need to keep up this momentum to catch the fourth seeded Nuggets, which they’re 1.5 games behind.