Griffin Wong breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for Hawks at Magic on Wednesday.

Though the 20 teams who will participate in the postseason have been determined, the remainder of the regular season is far from meaningless. In the Eastern Conference, six teams are still in a fight for two places above the Play-In Tournament, as they’re separated by just three games with either six or seven games remaining in the regular season.

Two of those teams will face off today, when the Orlando Magic host the Atlanta Hawks at 7:10 p.m. ET. The 43-33 Hawks currently hold the fifth seed in the conference, but the Magic (40-35) are just two and a half games behind, so Atlanta’s position is far from secure.

The Hawks should be mostly healthy, as their only rotation player with an injury designation is Jock Landale (illness), who’s questionable. Meanwhile, Orlando will continue to be without Jonathan Isaac (knee) and Anthony Black (abdomen), who have been out for several weeks, but Franz Wagner (injury management) is questionable after missing most of the last four months with an ankle injury.

Atlanta is a 3.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-180 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 232.5. The Magic are +150. Below, I’ll break down this critical seeding battle and offer a prediction.

Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic preview, prediction

The Hawks have been one of the hottest teams in basketball since inserting CJ McCollum into the starting lineup on February 22, going 16-2 across that span. It hasn’t been a direct result of his play; 18.5 points per game on 45-31-78 shooting splits is superior to what Zaccharie Risacher was posting in the same role, but isn’t in itself superstar production. The rest of Atlanta’s rotation has been clicking as well, as Jalen Johnson has nearly averaged a triple-double in March and Nickeil Alexander-Walker has posted 22.7 points per game on 53-47-94 shooting splits. Jonathan Kuminga has provided flashes of two-way upside.

On the other hand, Orlando has been cold as of late. The Magic had won 10 of their first 13 games after the All-Star break, but they’ve since dropped seven of their last nine, only beating the woeful Sacramento Kings and slumping Phoenix Suns by four points each. To be fair, they’ve gotten some improved play out of 2022 first overall pick Paolo Banchero, who’s averaged 25.0 points per game since the All-Star break, but without Wagner and Black, they have struggled for depth and high-level secondary creation. Wagner’s possible return could help, but it’s likely that he’ll be on a heavy minutes restriction if he does play.

Hawks at Magic pick, best bet

The Hawks’ numbers are pretty overwhelming over the last 18 games; in that span, they rank fourth in offensive rating, third in defensive rating, third in net rating, and second in winning percentage. To be fair, Atlanta hasn’t had the most difficult schedule, playing just four teams in the top six in either conference and going 2-2, and in those games, the Detroit Pistons were without Cade Cunningham and the Boston Celtics played one game without each of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Still, the Hawks beat Orlando and have been at least four points per 100 possessions better than the Magic on both sides of the ball across that span. Orlando’s defensive struggles have continued; it ranks just 15th on that side of the ball this season despite finishing second in defensive rating in 2024-25. Even if Wagner does play, he likely won’t make that much of an impact; the team has posted similar marks on both ends of the floor with and without him.

The surest way to post an elite defense is to take away the easiest shots in the game, but despite Atlanta’s recent defensive rating, it hasn’t been flawless in that regard. The Hawks’ opponents have converted at the seventh-lowest rate within five feet, but they’ve attempted the eighth-most shots. Meanwhile, the Magic have had the opposite problem; although they’ve allowed the fifth-fewest attempts at the rim, opponents have converted at the second-highest rate. Offensively, both teams have gotten downhill with nearly identical frequencies, but Atlanta has finished slightly more accurately.

Both teams have been pretty strong on the boards as of late. Since elevating McCollum, the Hawks have posted the league’s sixth-best rebounding percentage, and Orlando, too, ranks in the top 10. Atlanta should have a massive edge in transition play, as it has loads of deflections behind its oversized guard duo of Alexander-Walker and Dyson Daniels and the Magic lost some of their athletic juice without Black. Orlando fouls much more and draws many more fouls, so it should have the slight advantage as long as Banchero stays aggressive.

Over the course of their hot streak, the Hawks have done an excellent job closing out on opposing shooters, as they’ve allowed the second-fewest wide-open threes per game across that span. That should allow them to make life difficult for the Magic, who rank fourth-to-last in wide-open three-point percentage this season and have two qualified shooters (Banchero and Wendell Carter Jr.) who rank in the league’s bottom 50 in three-point percentage over expectation. Wagner is a decent shooter, but he could be rusty after playing just four games since December 7. Meanwhile, Atlanta has done an excellent job generating easy triples as of late, and McCollum, Alexander-Walker, Landale, and Okongwu are all above-average shooters.

Home court advantage is a swing of roughly five points per 100 possessions in Orlando’s favor relative to a game played at State Farm Arena, but given that the Hawks won by 12 points there, it seems reasonable to expect that they’ll cover the spread tonight. Their high shot quality and low opponent shot quality over their hot streak suggests that their record mostly isn’t a product of luck. In the long run, the Magic’s ceiling is probably higher with Wagner healthy, but he probably won’t play enough minutes to swing the game enough tonight.

Best bet: Atlanta Hawks -3.5 (-105)