Bryan Armetta shares his preview, prediction and pick for Wednesday’s game between the Boston Celtics and the Miami Heat.
A stellar season in Beantown has the Celtics (50-25, 2nd East) set up for another deep postseason run. However, Boston still needs to fend off New York and Cleveland for the Eastern Conference’s second seed. It’s a different story for Miami (40-36, 9th East), currently fighting to avoid the dreaded play-in. Can the Heat earn an upset on Wednesday against their hated rivals?
The Celtics are 4.5-point favorites (-112) over the Heat on DraftKings Sportsbook. Boston is favored at -198 on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at 229.5 points. Here’s my preview, prediction, and pick for Wednesday’s Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat game.
Celtics vs. Heat prediction, preview
The biggest headline for the Celtics as of late is Jayson Tatum. After tearing his Achilles tendon last postseason, Boston’s face of the franchise has made a remarkable recovery. Despite pessimism he’d return before the playoffs, JT made his season debut on March 6th. Granted, shaking off the rust hasn’t been easy. The five-time All-NBA selection is averaging 20.9 points, 9.1 rebounds and 4.2 assists over 11 games. During that stretch, he’s shooting a middling 40% from the field. With that being said, the superstar has notched 58 points on 45% shooting over his previous two contests.
Granted, the Celtics have gotten to this point without Tatum active for most of the season. Boston’s standout campaign has been made possible by the all-around excellence of Jaylen Brown. The Cal alum has made a major statement, proving he can carry a playoff-caliber squad as a first option. Over 66 appearances, JB is putting up 28.6 points, 7.1 rebounds and 5.2 assists. The C’s aren’t a two-man show either; they’re second in offensive rating (120.0) and fourth in defensive rating (112.6). Head coach Joe Mazzulla has numerous high-quality options available off of the bench as well. This group makes scoring tough on opponents, due in part to the NBA’s slowest offensive pace (94.7). If you’re going to take down Boston, getting out to an early lead is crucial.
Making sense of Miami can be a frustrating practice, especially as of late. Over the past few weeks, the Heat have taken down contenders such as the Cavaliers, 76ers and Pistons. However, they’ve also fallen short against bottom-feeders such as the Pacers and Bucks (without Giannis Antetokounmpo). Head coach Erik Spoelstra has revamped this entire roster, opting to push the pace rather than play conservatively. Miami leads all of the NBA with a 103.6 tempo. As previously mentioned, that’s a stark contrast compared to Boston’s glacial offense.
If there’s any weakness on this Celtics defense, it’s from beyond the arc. They’ve allowed 13.9 three-pointers made per game to opponents, tied for seventh-most in basketball. Miami, when fully healthy, isn’t lacking sharpshooters. Unfortunately, All-Star Norman Powell (illness) is sidelined tonight. Tyler Herro (21.6 PPG) and Bam Adebayo (20.1 PPG) are capable of carrying the offense, but it probably won’t be as effective. The Heat have a 115.5 offensive rating over their last five games, 18th in the NBA during that time.
Celtics vs. Heat pick, best bet
Miami’s up-tempo scoring attack tends to produce shootouts. However, that wasn’t the case when these teams last met on March 14th. The Celtics churned out an ugly 103-91 victory at TD Garden. While a game in South Beach favors the Heat, losing Powell makes scoring against an elite defense even more difficult. With Tatum beginning to look like his old self, it’s hard not to back Boston tonight.