Griffin Wong breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for Spurs at Warriors on Wednesday.

For the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder, every game matters from here on out. The Spurs have just seven games remaining in the regular season and are two and a half games behind the Thunder for the first seed in the Western Conference, which could matter both for a potential Western Conference Finals and for the MVP race, where team record could conceivably be the tiebreaker between San Antonio’s Victor Wembanyama and Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

For the Spurs, tonight’s game against the Golden State Warriors presents an opportunity to inch half a game closer to the Thunder in the standings and for Wembanyama to make a statement in the MVP race. The game will tip off at 10:10 p.m. ET in San Francisco. It’ll air on ESPN.

San Antonio should be completely healthy, with the exception of backup center Luke Kornet, who will rest to manage his nagging knee injury. As for the Warriors, Jimmy Butler III (ACL) and Moses Moody (patellar tendon) are done for the season, and Stephen Curry (knee), Al Horford (calf), De’Anthony Melton (thumb), Gary Payton II (knee), Kristaps Porziņġis (illness), and Quinten Post (foot) are all out for the game. Gui Santos (pelvic) is questionable.

Given Golden State’s long injury list, the Spurs are 13.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-950 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 227.5. The Warriors are +625. Below, I’ll break down this potential 1-8 preview and offer a prediction.

San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors preview, prediction

Since February 1, San Antonio has basically been untouchable. In that span, the Spurs have gone 25-2, losing only to the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden and the Denver Nuggets at home without Wembanyama. Individually, the gargantuan Frenchman has been dominant, averaging 25.0 points, 11.7 rebounds, 1.3 steals, and 3.6 blocks per game on 51-34-81 shooting splits, and he’s coming off of the third-fastest double-double in NBA history. He’s had plenty of help, too; Stephon Castle, a shaky shooter in college and during his rookie season, has made 39.7% of his threes across that span, and Dylan Harper has emerged as one of the most productive rookies.

Meanwhile, little has gone right for Golden State. Curry hasn’t played since January 31 while dealing with a series of knee injuries, and in that span, the Warriors are just 9-16. Their trade deadline decision to ship away Jonathan Kuminga for Porziņġis hasn’t looked good so far, since Kuminga has shown promising flashes in Atlanta and Porziņġis has barely played because of his illness. Moody, selected seven picks after Kuminga in 2021, had a promising February, but he’s expected to miss most of next season as well.

Spurs at Warriors pick, best bet

Across its hot streak, San Antonio has won with its offense more than with its defense, which should terrify opponents given that it employs the single most dominant defender on the planet. Since the start of February, the Spurs have led the league in offensive rating, 0.9 points per 100 possessions more efficient than the second-place Cleveland Cavaliers, while ranking second in defensive rating, just a tick behind Oklahoma City. In that same span, Golden State ranks 23rd in offensive rating and 21st in defensive rating, and if Santos doesn’t play, it’ll be without every single player on its roster with a positive on-court net rating in at least 250 minutes played.

Unsurprisingly for a team built around Wembanyama, San Antonio has had brilliant interior play as of late. In that span, only five teams have allowed fewer shots within five feet than the Spurs, and only the Thunder have allowed a lower percentage on such looks. They’ve also attempted the third-most shots within five feet since the start of February, and the Warriors have allowed the seventh-highest percentage on close-range tries. Golden State might still be effective offensively because it’s converted its layups at the third-highest rate, but getting to the rim at a merely average rate won’t cut it against Wembanyama.

The Warriors also can’t rebound very well; since February 1, they rank ninth-to-last in total rebounding percentage, including fourth-to-last in defensive rebounding percentage. That could be a huge issue against San Antonio, which has snagged boards at the third-highest rate throughout its hot streak and has the league leader in defensive rebounding percentage. The Spurs have also been better than Golden State’s aging squad in transition on both sides of the ball, and while both teams have played disciplined basketball while struggling to draw fouls, San Antonio has had a free-throw differential since Curry’s injury.

The Warriors will have to shoot the lights out in order to beat the Spurs, and to be fair, that’s the one area in which they’ve survived their Hall of Fame point guard’s absence. Even without Curry’s gravity, Golden State has generated the most wide-open threes per game across the last two months. San Antonio has been pretty content to wall off the paint and allow opposing teams to beat it from deep, allowing the eighth-most wide-open triples per game since February 1. It has also benefited from more shooting luck lately than the Warriors have. Any normalization of shooting luck should favor Golden State. However, with each of their top three qualified shooters by three point percentage over expectation (Curry, Moody, and Butler) sidelined, the Warriors’ shooting advantage is minimal. The Spurs won’t continue to shoot 42.0% on wide-open threes forever, but given that Wembanyama’s gravity has allowed them to attempt an NBA-record 13.3 corner triples per game over the last two months, being an above-average shooting team seems sustainable.

Normally, games with lopsided spreads are difficult to pick, because it’s possible that San Antonio could race out to a huge lead, pull Wembanyama, and then Golden State could pull it back with a back-door cover and second-half win. But with Wembanyama openly pursuing the MVP award and no reliable backup center with Kornet sitting, it seems likely that Mitch Johnson will keep him in deep into the fourth quarter, regardless of the score. His mere presence should be enough for the Spurs to win both halves.

Best bet: San Antonio Spurs to Win Both Halves (-130)