Alex Hunter breaks down his preview, prediction and pick for Thursday’s NBA matchup between the Hornets and the Suns.
The Hornets are hosting the Suns on Thursday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Charlotte is favored by 5.5 points and this game carries a total of 223.5 points.
Let’s dive into my preview and pick for this matchup.
Hornets vs. Suns preview
After dropping back-to-back games to the 76ers and Celtics, the Hornets got back on track Tuesday with a 117-86 win over the Nets. Charlotte is 40-36 on the season and sits eighth in the Eastern Conference. The Hornets are locked in for a spot in the Play-In Tournament, but with the standings so tight, they could finish as high as the No.6 or as low as the No.10 seed. Charlotte is only two games back of the 76ers for the No.6 seed and the Hornets are only a half game ahead of the No.10-seeded Heat.
While the Hornets own a near .500 record for the season, their best basketball has come in the second half of the season, with a 14-7 record and ranking third in net rating since the All-Star break. Charlotte ranks top-six in both offensive and defensive rating over this time. LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller and Kon Knuepell are all playing great basketball, and the Hornets’ only problem is this young team can struggle in late game situations. Since the All-Star break, Charlotte is 1-4 in clutch games, which is when the score is within five points in the final five minutes.
The Hornets being a 5.5-point favorite for tonight on DraftKings Sportsbook suggests they find themselves in a clutch game vs. the Suns and when these clubs met in Phoenix last month, the Suns prevailed 111-99. That being said, the Suns haven’t been much better in clutch games themselves, with a 3-7 record since the All-Star break and the club has been much worse on the road this season. Phoenix is 24-15 at home, but just 18-19 on the road.
The Suns are coming off a 115-111 road loss to the Magic on Tuesday and Phoenix is just 4-6 on the road since the All-Star break. Those victories haven’t been against strong opponents, either, as all these road wins came against teams that have already been eliminated from the playoffs.
The Suns are 42-34 this season and the No.7 seed in the Western Conference, but they are just 10-11 and rank 16th in net rating since the All-Star break. Dillon Brooks did just make his return Tuesday after missing over a month with a broken hand, but he struggled, shooting 4-of-13 from the field for just nine points. Brooks is averaging a career-high 20.6 PPG this season and is a big part of Phoenix’s locker-room, but the Suns’ net rating is actually 3.6 points per 100 possessions better with him off the floor than it is with him on.
Tonight will be just the seventh game Phoenix has had all three of Devin Booker, Jalen Green and Brooks available, and the club is just 3-3 in the first six. With how things sit right now, the Suns are likely to finish as the No.7 seed. They are three games ahead of the Clippers for that spot and 4.5 games back of the Timberwolves for the No.6 seed. Phoenix still needs a few more wins to secure the No.7 seed, so tonight is an important game, but it is more crucial for the Hornets.
Hornets vs. Suns pick, best Bet
While the Suns own a better record, the Hornets are the better team. Plus, Phoenix’s road woes are very real. Charlotte should get a home win tonight and backing the team to cover this 5.5-point spread is the smart play.
Ironically, these two teams are tied for the best ATS records in the league. However, the Suns are 11-12 ATS as a road underdog and the Hornets are 11-7 ATS as a home favorite. Also, Charlotte is 17-11 ATS and Phoenix at 14-14 ATS in non-conference games.