It has not been a storybook season for the Houston Rockets, but the suggestion that it’s been a disaster is an overcorrection.
Guilty as charged. I’ve contributed my share of both gloom and doom. On the heels of a four-game winning streak (including a signature win over the Knicks last night), life feels a little breezier.
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That doesn’t mean there’s nothing to worry about. Don’t worry: There’s always something to worry about.
The Rockets need to be worrying about life after Kevin Durant.
The Rockets are too reliant on Durant
If you don’t have a CleaningTheGlass subscription, I’ll save you a buck (although, if you write about basketball, or you’re just sufficiently nerdy, it’s a wonderful service). The Rockets’ four best lineups in terms of differential all include Kevin Durant.
There are lots of implications in this data, many of which I’ve already explored. None of those groups features both Alperen Sengun and Reed Sheppard, which is a concern. Their long-term chemistry is something to keep an eye on, but let’s turn our attention elsewhere.
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Houston’s best lineup sans Durant is just the young core. Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason, Amen Thompson, and Sheppard are +8.7 in 115 possessions. That’s good, but it’s not NBA contender good.
It’s a concern, but it’s not an unsolvable quagmire. That’s a young lineup. If the Rockets hadn’t acquired Durant, and were more conventionally rebuilding, they’d be happy that the lineup was even positive. That would indicate potential. I checked CleaningTheGlass, and it’s hard to find a great Spurs lineup in terms of both effectiveness and high volume that doesn’t have De’Aaron Fox.
So, the future is…fine? Not bleak, if not blindingly bright. Still, that takes us back to where we started:
What happens when Durant is gone?
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The Rockets have two paths forward
Consider this a sister article to one of my more recent articles, The Rockets have the luxury of thinking about the future.
Only, we’re not talking Antetokounmpo here (for once). The operating assumption here is that he doesn’t come to Houston. The Rockets run it back next year with Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams back in the fold. They run it back for one more year, with two fresh first-round prospects (more on that later) in the mix. Durant retires.
What now?
Reductively, there are two options: Stay the course, or change course. So, the decision in this hypothetical will rest on how the Rockets feel about their core guys + whoever they pick in the 2027 draft.
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Big reveal: This was all an elaborate ruse to allow me to talk about 2027 draft prospects. There are two guys I’m interested in as potential future Rockets.
The first is soon-to-be Dukie Cameron Williams. This is your classic Evan Mobley, Alex Sarr type. Williams is 6’11” with a 7’1″ wingspan and is basically good at everything. He’s a stout rim protector who can switch defensively. He’s a palpable floor spacer, heady passer, surprisingly deft ball-handler, and whatever else you can think of on offense besides an elite half-court scorer.
I’ve had a vision.
Alperen Sengun / Cameron Williams / Jabari Smith Jr. / Amen Thompson / Reed Sheppard. This works on several levels. You’re getting plus positional passing at every position but the 3. You get plus positional size at every position but the 1. The massive two-through-five could insulate Sheppard defensively.
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You’re still a bit light on shooting, and half-court creation. This lineup needs to lean into Sengun as a hub and run a motion-heavy offense with constant cutting, relocating, and general on-and-off ball movement.
Put differently, it probably needs a new Head Coach if we’re being completely honest. It also needs a carefully constructed bench. Assume Tari Eason is still around on a team-friendly deal. This could be the cue for the inevitable James Harden reunion tour.
Otherwise, Maryland commit Baba Oladotun makes for a stronger hypothetical direct Durant replacement. Yes, I know. He’ll almost definitely not be as good as Durant, no prospect is likely to be as good as Durant, etc, etc. I’m only saying that in terms of skillset, he’s a better analog.
Oladotun is a 6’11” scorer. He’s an excellent ball-handler at his size, and he’s got advanced footwork as a midrange scorer. Three-point efficiency has not been his friend, but if that changes during his first college season, he’s someone for the Rockets to look at.
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That said, Williams is currently projected as a top-three pick. Oladotun’s projection varies, but if he does find his form from long range, he’s got a chance to be a high pick. The Rockets have the rights to both Brooklyn and Phoenix’s first-rounders next summer. There’s real hope that they’ll land a high pick, but no assurance.
Let’s say they draft a solid role player. They’re left with the current core five and another decent guy. Let’s say they give it one more year, and it doesn’t look like enough.
The next step is consolidation.
Anthony Edwards, welcome to Houston. When did you get here, Franz Wagner? It’s a bird, it’s a plane, no! It’s Tyrese Maxey!
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An attractive proposition for some. A nightmare scenario for young core truthers. Personally?
I’m somewhere in the middle. But something about Sengun and Eason, arm in arm, throwing deserved shade at Kevin Dickerson (“we don’t talk behind each other’s backs”) put a twinkle in my eye.
These guys like each other. That matters. The Rockets have chemistry. It would be ideal to keep them together:
But that will mean identifying a contending-level lineup that doesn’t include Durant.