The Celtics’ playoff outlook is beginning to crystallize.
After its 147-129 demolition of the Miami Heat on Wednesday, Joe Mazzulla’s club holds a 2 1/2-game lead over the Knicks for the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference with six games remaining.
While it’s still possible for New York to close that gap, especially with one more head-to-head matchup to come on April 9 at Madison Square Garden, Basketball-Reference’s playoff probability calculator gives Boston a 95.1% chance of finishing second in the East for the second straight season, which would set up a first-round series against the winner of the 7 vs. 8 play-in game.
The battle for those spots, meanwhile, is far from settled.
The Atlanta Hawks, winners of 17 of 19, including a 112-102 triumph over Boston on Monday, have begun to separate themselves from the logjam of teams occupying the bottom half of the East playoff picture. Currently fifth in the conference, they have just a 2.7% chance of entering the postseason as the No. 7 seed, per Basketball-Reference.
But the five teams behind Atlanta were separated by just 2 1/2 games entering Thursday’s action. Basketball-Reference’s model views that race as a toss-up, giving all five between a 14% and 23% chance of facing the No. 2 seed (likely Boston) in Round 1.
Which team would the Celtics prefer? Which would they like to avoid? Here is a closer look at each of their five most likely opening-round opponents (all records and statistics as of Thursday):
Philadelphia 76ers
Record: 42-34
Record vs. Boston: 2-2
Probability for No. 7 seed: 20.6%
On paper, the 76ers have the most proven roster talent of any team in this group. But their problem, as it always seems to be in Philly, has been keeping those players on the floor. The Sixers have had their core four of Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, Paul George and VJ Edgecombe — a former NBA MVP, two multi-time All-Stars and one of the league’s top rookies — available for just 18 games this season. Lineups featuring those four have posted a negative net rating across 317 minutes together, and Philadelphia is an unimpressive 10-8 when all four start.
The Celtics have yet to see that full quartet in action. Three of the teams’ four matchups were decided by one or two points, but all of those were in October or November. Boston routed Philly 114-98 on March 1 in a game Embiid and George both missed.
Toronto Raptors
Record: 42-34
Record vs. Boston: 0-3 (one remaining on April 5)
Probability for No. 7 seed: 22.3%
A top-five team in the East for most of this season, the Raptors have been trending downward since they knocked off the Thunder in Oklahoma City on Jan. 25. Since then, they’re 13-15 overall and 3-13 against non-lottery teams. One of those wins was a 52-point spanking of the Orlando Magic (more on them below) that featured an NBA-record 31-0 run, but Toronto has done little else to inspire confidence as it looks to secure its first playoff berth since 2022. On Wednesday, it lost at home to the 20-win Sacramento Kings.
The Raptors will visit Boston on Sunday, followed by back-to-back games against Miami. Those will go a long way toward determining whether either team can avoid the play-in tournament.
Boston Celtics’ Payton Pritchard (11) drives past Toronto Raptors’ Scottie Barnes during second half of NBA game action in Toronto on Saturday. (Frank Gunn/The Canadian Press via AP)
Charlotte Hornets
Record: 40-36
Record vs. Boston: 1-1 (one remaining on April 9)
Probability for No. 7 seed: 18.8%
The surprise success story of this NBA season, the Hornets have more than doubled their win total from 2024-25 and have been one of the league’s most formidable outfits since the start of 2026. Since Jan. 1, they rank first in offensive rating, fourth in defensive rating, first in net rating and fifth in win percentage. They’ve notched victories over the Thunder, Lakers, Nuggets, Spurs, Celtics and Knicks, all by double digits.
The playoffs are a different animal, and the Hornets’ lack of experience on that stage — all five of their starters have never appeared in a postseason game — could limit their ceiling this spring. But they’ve far outperformed the other teams in this cluster over the last three months, while playing a similar style to head coach Charles Lee’s former club. Under the ex-Celtics assistant, the Hornets lead the NBA in made 3-pointers per game and rank second in both rebounding rate and offensive rebounding rate. Boston, which avenged its 29-point home loss by beating Charlotte on Sunday without Jaylen Brown, ranks third, third and fifth, respectively.
Orlando Magic
Record: 40-36
Record vs. Boston: 1-2 (one remaining on April 12)
Probability for No. 7 seed: 14.9%
The Magic hoped their offseason trade for Desmond Bane would vault them into the top tier of Eastern Conference contenders. Instead, they’ve arguably been the NBA’s biggest disappointment, posting the worst point differential and net rating of any East playoff or play-in team. They’ve lost by 29 or more points twice in the last week, including the aforementioned 139-87 bludgeoning against Toronto on Sunday,
This is a different Orlando team, too, than the one Boston defeated in a five-game slobberknocker last April. After boasting an elite defense and an awful offense last season, the Magic have been mediocre on both fronts, ranking 16th in defensive rating and 18th in offensive rating. They’ll hope the return of Franz Wagner, who’s back after missing 22 games with a high ankle sprain, can provide a much-needed spark.
Miami Heat
Record: 40-37
Record vs. Boston: 0-4
Probability for No. 7 seed: 20.6%
Another team that’s slumped of late, the Heat are 2-8 in their last 10. They surrendered more than 120 points in all eight losses and at least 134 in six of them, including the 147-point eruption Wednesday night that clinched Boston’s season sweep over its frequent playoff foe.
Few coaches can match Erik Spoelstra’s postseason resume, and Miami is just three years removed from reaching the NBA Finals as a No. 8 seed. This team, though, hasn’t looked capable of another deep run. Before his team’s latest defeat, Spoelstra told reporters that the Celtics “don’t see us as a threat.” He’s probably right.