Griffin Wong breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for New Orleans Pelicans at Sacramento Kings on Friday.

The Sacramento Kings started the season with some hopes after losing in the Play-In Tournament last season, but all hopes were quickly dashed when their best player, Domantas Sabonis, missed significant time early in the season with a meniscus tear. For the last several months, the Kings have simply been hoping AJ Dybantsa or Darryn Peterson will wear purple next season.

If it wants to secure either man’s services, Sacramento still needs to lose, as it currently holds only the fourth-best odds to land the first overall pick in this summer’s NBA Draft. It’ll face another bottom-feeding team at 10:10 p.m. ET tonight when it hosts the New Orleans Pelicans.

As has been standard recently, the Kings have an extremely long injury list. Drew Eubanks (eye), Zach LaVine (finger), Keegan Murray (ankle), Sabonis (knee), and Russell Westbrook (toe) are all out, with Malik Monk (shoulder) questionable. Meanwhile, the Pelicans haven’t submitted their injury report yet, but the only players who missed last night’s game against the Portland Trail Blazers were bench pieces Bryce McGowens (toe) and Karlo Matković (back).

New Orleans is a 5.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-218 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 234.5. Sacramento is +180 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this matchup of already-eliminated sides and offer a prediction.

New Orleans Pelicans at Sacramento Kings preview, prediction

The Pelicans owe their unprotected first-round pick to the Atlanta Hawks after trading up for Derik Queen in last summer’s draft, so they have no incentive to lose. As a result, they’re a solid 10-11 since the All-Star break, and though they’re on a six-game losing streak, all of the teams that they played in that stretch are above .500. Queen and fellow lottery pick Jeremiah Fears have looked solid, and oft-injured Zion Williamson has appeared in 50 of New Orleans’ last 51 games, averaging 21.0 points per game on 62.5% shooting. The Pelicans are still in the middle of a lengthy rebuild, but it’s finally starting to bear fruit.

The Kings have picked up the pace, winning eight games since the All-Star break alone, and DeMar DeRozan torched his former team on Wednesday night, dropping 28 points on the Toronto Raptors. After losing Sabonis, Sacramento stumbled upon an unexpected building block of its future, as second-round center Maxime Raynaud just won Western Conference Rookie of the Month after averaging 17.9 points and 8.5 rebounds per game on 60-44-78 shooting splits in March. Nique Clifford and Dylan Cardwell have also had respectable rookie seasons.

Pelicans at Kings pick, best bet

Since February 7, when the Kings shut LaVine and Sabonis down for the season, the chasm between these teams has widened. In that span, New Orleans has had a barely negative net rating, being outscored by just 0.3 points per 100 possessions, and Sacramento has been the league’s fourth-worst team, struggling especially on defense. The Kings could also be a little bit worse today if Monk doesn’t play, given that he’s had an impact worth 1.4 points per 100 possessions, though they’ve been awful with or without him.

Sacramento should be an excellent matchup for the Pelicans. Since the All-Star break, the Kings have allowed an above-average percentage within five feet, and Raynaud ranks in just the 26th percentile in rim points saved per 100 possessions. Sacramento’s lackluster interior defense could serve New Orleans well, given that it has attempted by far the most close-range shots in the league this season. The Pelicans don’t defend the rim well, either, but the Kings have gotten downhill at one of the league’s lowest rates since shutting down LaVine and Sabonis. All in all, New Orleans will have the advantage in the interior.

To be fair, Sacramento has actually been a decent rebounding team as of late despite losing Sabonis, who had led the league in rebounds per game in each of the prior three seasons. Since February 7, the Kings have snagged 50.1% of all available boards, a higher rate than the Pelicans. Where they give up the edge, though, is in transition, as New Orleans’ youth and athleticism has allowed it to score the fourth-most fast-break points per game over the last 23 games. Additionally, the Pelicans have been among the league’s best at drawing fouls, in part because of their post-centric game.

Neither of these teams can really shoot. For the season, they rank 24th (New Orleans) and 29th (Sacramento) in three-point percentage, and given the Kings’ shot diet, it makes sense. Since shutting down LaVine, Sacramento has generated the second-fewest wide-open threes per game and connected on such shots at the lowest rate, a function both of bad luck and of sub-par raw shooting talent. It could find shot creation a bit easier tonight; both teams have also given up among the most uncontested looks across that span. The difference is that the Kings have gotten extremely unlucky and the Pelicans extremely lucky through shooting variance.

Given New Orleans’ paint-centric offense and Raynaud’s struggles in rim protection, the Pelicans should win this game pretty easily. I’m also betting against both defenses; the fact that both teams have allowed among the most uncontested tries underscores their fundamental futility, which is more informative in the long run than fluky shooting. Three of each team’s last five games have gone over the total.

Best bet: Over 234.5 (-110)