Alex Hunter breaks down his preview, prediction and pick for Sunday’s NBA matchup between the Mavericks and the Lakers.
The Mavericks are hosting the Lakers on Sunday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Los Angeles is favored by 1.5 points and this game carries a total of 233.5 points.
Let’s dive into my preview and pick for this matchup.
Mavericks vs. Lakers preview
This will be the fourth and final matchup of the season between the Mavericks and Lakers. Los Angeles is 3-0 in this season series and two of these wins have been double-digits, most recently with a 20-point win on February 12th.
The 24-52 Mavericks sit 13th in the Western Conference and were eliminated from the playoffs two weeks ago. The 50-27 Lakers, on the other hand, are the No.3 seed and just a half game ahead of the Nuggets for that spot, so Los Angeles will be going all out for a win tonight.
The issue is, the Lakers have been hammered by injuries the past few days. Luka Doncic was diagnosed with a Grade 2 hamstring strain and Austin Reeves suffered an oblique injury. Both have been ruled out for the remainder of the regular season and there is concern about their availability for the playoffs.
The Lakers are 17-9 and rank ninth in net rating since the All-Star break, but Reaves and more importantly, Doncic were a massive part of the team’s success. Since the All-Star break, the superstar is leading the NBA with 34.7 PPG. Los Angeles has played one game without both Doncic and Reaves this season and the club lost to the Trail Blazers in Portland 132-116 that night.
Marcus Smart led the club with 25 points in the loss, but he also will be out tonight with an ankle injury. This leaves LeBron James with a massive role and the 41-year-old should put up some big numbers. With Doncic, Reaves and Smart off the floor this season, James’ usage rises 6.9 percentage points to 34% and his assist rate skyrockets 14.6 percentage points to 46.8%
Where the Lakers will get production outside James is a concern, though. Deandre Ayton, Rui Hachimura and Jake LaRavia all will see expanded roles and could step up, but nothing is guaranteed with these inconsistent players. Los Angeles own an ugly -11.7 net rating per 100 possessions with Doncic, Reaves and Smart off the floor. That being said, this is a great matchup against the struggling Mavericks and as mentioned above, the Lakers have plenty at stake, while Dallas has been eliminated from the postseason.
Since the All-Star break, the Mavericks are 5-18 and rank 26th in net rating. Cooper Flagg just went off for 51 points vs. the Magic on Friday, but Dallas still lost this game by 11 points, which marked the team’s 14th straight loss at home.
It hasn’t been pretty for the Mavericks, to say the least, but Flagg should continue to be aggressive tonight, as he attempts to make a late push for Rookie of the Year. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Flagg carries +230 odds for the award, trailing his former Duke teammate Kon Knueppel at -330.
Mavericks vs. Lakers pick, best Bet
While the Lakers’ injuries are concerning, they need to win this game and the Mavericks have been terrible recently, especially at home.
James should led Los Angeles to a win and the Lakers -1.5 is a strong play. As a favorite this season, Los Angeles is 30-17 ATS.