Bill Yin breaks down his prediction and pick for tonight’s game between the LA Clippers and Dallas Mavericks.

The 40-38 Clippers will host the 25-53 Mavericks tonight at 10:30 PM EST. The Mavericks have listed Brandon Williams and Marvin Bagley III as Questionable. Daniel Gafford is Doubtful. The Clippers will continue to be without Bradley Beal, Isaiah Jackson, and Yanic Konan Niederhauser.

The Clippers are 11.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook with the total for this game set at 238.5 points.

Clippers vs. Mavericks prediction, preview

Dallas is more dangerous than its 25-53 record suggests right now, but the danger is specific. This version of the Mavericks is built around Cooper Flagg catching fire and dragging the game into a shotmaking contest. Over his last two games, he has dropped 51 on Orlando and 45 on the Lakers, shooting 33-for-57 from the field and 8-for-13 from deep during that stretch, which is why the whole shape of Dallas has tilted toward letting him work. The rookie sensation has been stellar at the end of the season and has been the one hope for Mavs fans since the fateful trade of Luka Doncic to the Lakers. Dallas’ broader team profile is still messy. The Mavs are scoring 113.8 PPG, generating 17.9 fastbreak points, 53.2 points in the paint, and 54.3 RPG, but also allowing 119.4 PPG and 56.0 opponent points in the paint. The Mavs can create pace, pressure the rim, and pile up possessions, but it still gives too much back on the other end. We’ll see if Cooper Flagg can continue his rampage.

The Clippers feel much more settled. They sit in the middle of a seeding push, so this game matters in a way it probably does not for Dallas. The Clips are scoring 114.0 PPG, allowing 112.6, holding opponents to 48.8 points in the paint, and posting a 56% effective field goal rate. That profile fits the roster. Kawhi Leonard has been incredible this season, generating tons of offense for this team with his career-high 28 PPG off .505/.384/.900 shooting splits. He also just stretched his franchise-record run of 20-point games to 54 straight. And we also have to talk about Darius Garland, who’s looked extremely good in a Clippers uniform, posting 20.3 PPG while shooting a career-high 48.8% from the field. We’ll see whether Garland can continue this efficiency over the course of an entire season, but it’ll be interesting to see how this roster develops.

Clippers vs. Mavericks pick, best Bet

Best Bet: LA Clippers -7.5 (-228)

It seems Flagg’s been unlocked. Not that there was any doubt that he’d be given the green light at this point of the season, but seeing two back to back monster games is intriguing; he’s taking tons of shots from the field and looks primed to become a first-option 25 PPG scorer next year. Despite his individual prowess, Dallas’ defense is leaky, and they don’t have much to play for. I’m backing the Clippers to cover this alternate spread as they look to lock up the 8th seed, just half a game ahead of the Trail Blazers.