A potential first-round playoff matchup takes place on the final day of the 2025-26 NBA regular season, as the Phoenix Suns take on the Oklahoma City Thunder.

OKC locked up the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference already, leading to it resting a ton of players in Friday night’s loss to Denver. Meanwhile, the Suns are locked into the No. 7 seed, giving them the top spot in the Western Conference play-in tournament. 

This has been an awesome season for the Suns, as they blew past preseason expectations and have a real shot to be in the playoffs after missing them last season. If Phoenix loses its first play-in game and wins the second one, it would face OKC in the first round of the playoffs.

This season, the Thunder are 3-1 against Phoenix, including a win in the NBA Cup and two wins by 27 or more points. Oddsmakers have set OKC (34-6 at home) as a favorite in this matchup.

Let’s dive into the odds, a player prop to consider and my prediction for this regular-season finale. 

Suns vs. Thunder Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Suns +5.5 (-115)Thunder -5.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Total

213.5 (Over -105/Under -115)Suns vs. Thunder How to WatchDate: Sunday, April 12Time: 8:30 p.m. ESTVenue: Paycom CenterHow to Watch (TV): FanDuel Sports Network (Local), Arizona’s Family SportsSuns record: 44-37Thunder record: 64-17Suns vs. Thunder Injury ReportsSuns Injury ReportMark Williams – questionableDevin Booker – outDillon Brooks – outGrayson Allen – outCollin Gillespie – questionableJordan Goodwin – questionableJalen Green – questionableHaywood Highsmith – questionableRoyce O’Neale – outThunder Injury ReportJaylin Williams – outJalen Williams – outChet Holmgren – outCason Wallace – outThomas Sorber – outAjay Mitchell – outIsaiah Joe – outShai Gilgeous-Alexander – outAlex Caruso – outIsaiah Hartenstein – outSuns vs. Thunder Best NBA Prop BetsThunder Best NBA Prop BetJared McCain OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (+105)

McCain should get a chance to play an expanded role against Phoenix after starting and playing over 25 minutes in Friday’s loss against the Nuggets. 

After a shooting slump at the end of March, McCain has now made three or more shots from beyond the arc in two of his last three games. In the last five games that he’s played 20 or more minutes, McCain has made three or more shots from beyond the arc each time. 

Even against a usually tough 3-point defense, McCain is worth a look with the Thunder down most of their main rotation players. 

Suns vs. Thunder Prediction and Pick

Oklahoma City has one of the deepest teams in the NBA, so even with a ton of rotation players out, it may be able to build on an impressive 34-6 record at home. 

Phoenix is sitting Devin Booker and Dillon Brooks, a sign that it isn’t going after this game with the No. 7 seed already locked up. If the Suns end up sitting Mark Williams, Jalen Green and Collin Gillespie, I’d much rather trust the end of OKC’s bench than the end of Phoenix’s. 

The Suns don’t have nearly as much offensive firepower, and players like McCain, Aaron Wiggins and Nikola Topic could do enough to carry OKC to a win. The Thunder have simply been too good at home to fade in a game where both teams are mailing it in. 

Pick: Thunder -5.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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