Samson & Louis preview the upcoming playoff series for the Raptors.
From Louis’ piece:
”First of all, both teams want to own the paint. And they both want to do it with assisted looks, with initiators finding the efficient bigs on rolls, cuts, and duck-ins. The Cavaliers, especially with James Harden on the roster, have been exceptional at the rim. Since February 7, the Cavaliers have been the most efficient team when shooting in the short mid-range team and 12th when shooting at the rim. The Raptors have been 16th and 10th respectively over that same time period. And both teams attempt above-average rates of shots from both areas. And defensively, both teams have been very strong at forcing misses in the short mid-range and at the rim. So which team gets all the way to the rim, rather than stopping in the short mid-range, and which team finishes in those areas, will be a battle of sameness.
Secondly, the Raptors run more than any other team in the league, and the Cavaliers are elite at stopping opponents from running. More on this to come, but the less the game is played in the half-court, the better Toronto’s chances become. A battle of difference.
Both teams are middling 3-point shooting teams, though the Raptors are probably best defined as below-average, there. But they’ve been very strong in recent weeks, especially given Ja’Kobe Walter’s hot streak. Neither team depends on triples, but the Cavaliers far more frequently initiate the half-court with pull-up triples, ranking seventh in attempted pull-up triples per game (at 11.8), while the Raptors rank dead last (at 4.9). If Cleveland gets hot off the bounce, that would be much harder for Toronto to take away, and shift much more of Toronto’s defensive shell, than if Toronto gets hot off the catch. Though 3-point shooting looks similar in the aggregate, it’s actually a large advantage for Cleveland. Furthermore, none of Sam Merrill, Harden, or Dean Wade have played in a huge number of games for Cleveland this season, and they rank second, third, and fourth respectively in 3-point attempts per game for the Cavs while also all hitting over 40 percent on the season from deep as Cavs. Cleveland could show up as a devastating shooting team. Toronto will most likely not.
And despite starting twin towers, such efficiency is not really driven by offensive rebounding for Cleveland at all either. Going by half-court, first-chance efficiency, which excludes offensive rebounds and transition shots, the Cavaliers ranked sixth in the league at 101.4 points per 100 plays. All this means Cleveland will simply shoot more efficiently than Toronto over the course of the series. The Raptors need to win the transition game and get out and run in order to have a chance. Harden’s presence has also limited Cleveland’s turnovers and slowed their already glacial pace further. That all bodes ill for Toronto. If the Raptors let Cleveland define the pace of play, and completely lose the ability to run in transition, it will be a short series. Tempo will be one battle of difference.”
Have a blessed day.