The Nuggets are healthy favorites to advance to the second round for a fourth consecutive season, but if recent history against Minnesota is any indication, it won’t be easy.
Don’t be surprised if these three factors swing the series:
• Multidimensional Joker
A lot of teams try to make Nikola Jokic either a scorer or a facilitator. He’s elite at both skills, but the Nuggets are almost unstoppable when he’s scoring and assisting. Expect the Timberwolves to let Rudy Gobert go one-on-one against Jokic if Minnesota’s preference is turning the three-time Most Valuable Player into a score-first option. If Julius Randle or an even smaller player picks up Jokic with Gobert hovering around the paint to offer help, that makes Jokic most valuable as a facilitator. The effectiveness of the latter option comes down to help from the four players sharing the court with the best player in Denver’s franchise history. The Nuggets can expect to see both looks, but the reason behind Denver’s all-time offense is Jokic’s ability to do both.
If Minnesota is going to dare one member of Denver’s starting five to beat them from 3, it’s an easy choice. No one is leaving Jamal Murray or Nikola Jokic. Aaron Gordon is a threat at the rim and beyond the arc, while Cam Johnson is riding a hot streak into the playoffs. Johnson shot 45% from 3 in March and April. That leaves young Mr. Braun, who’s coming off the worst 3-point shooting season of his career. Braun shot 35% as a rookie, 38% in his second year and 39.7% last season. That number dipped to 30.1% this season. Despite the dip in efficiency, Braun is taking a career-high 3.3 attempts from 3 this season. Nuggets coach David Adelman has stressed the importance of his role players continuing to shoot with confidence. If Braun can’t find a rhythm while Minnesota dares him to shoot, Tim Hardaway Jr. is going to be an even bigger part of this series.
Denver’s more at risk of missing rotation players, but the Timberwolves are more likely to have stars operating at less than 100%. Antony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels returned to Minnesota’s rotation late in the regular season, but Edwards is yet to eclipse more than 30 minutes since returning from patellofemoral pain in his right knee. If the series is as close as it looks on paper, Minnesota is going to need him for roughly 35 minutes a night. McDaniels dealt with patella tendinopathy and a bone bruise in his left knee starting in late March. He’s played twice since March 25 with one of those games being a 35-minute effort against the Rockets. Minnesota will need him to be consistently available for more than 30 minutes if there’s a hope McDaniels’ defense and length can disrupt Jamal Murray. Denver enters the series with uncertainty around Peyton Watson’s and Spencer Jones’ availability to start the series after both suffered hamstring strains late in the regular season. Denver won’t need those guys for more than 20 minutes a night until they’re fully healthy, but Denver’s banged-up forwards could be needed to put out a fire or two if Edwards is back to his old form.