What exactly would it mean for the Oklahoma City Thunder to repeat as NBA champions this season?
In a league that’s had seven different champions in as many seasons, the Thunder would stake a claim as the closest thing to a dynasty. The definition of dominance. Three consecutive seasons atop the Western Conference, two rings to show for it — all by the end of this core’s third playoff run together.
The short-term success, coupled with a promising runway for more in the upcoming future, is what leaves this Thunder team so highly regarded. But if they storm to the West finals and dismantle whoever comes out of a likely Spurs-Nuggets series en route to a title, those who follow the NBA will need to stop fixating on the future and put these past three years into focus.
The teams that have repeated since 1980? The “Showtime” Lakers, the “Bad Boy” Pistons, Michael Jordan’s Bulls, Hakeem Olajuwon’s Rockets, the Shaq and Kobe Lakers, the late-aughts Lakers, LeBron James’ Heatles and the Golden State Warriors of the 2010s.
James is one of two players in NBA history to be named regular-season MVP and finals MVP in back-to-back campaigns (some guy named Michael Jordan is the other). Should Shai Gilgeous-Alexander end the summer with a Bill Russell trophy and a second Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy, he and his squad could ignite some uncomfortable conversations for those clinging to the past.
Many questions will be answered in a few weeks, but before everything, the Thunder will have to get past a Phoenix Suns team that eliminated the Warriors late Friday night in a Play-In game. The Thunder, which had the best record in the NBA at 64-18, won three out of five regular-season games against the Suns this season. That last matchup, a 135-103 Suns win on the final day of regular-season play, was loaded with reserve players getting the bulk minutes.
What should fans expect from this series, which tips off Sunday? Joel Lorenzi, who covers the Thunder, and Doug Haller, who covers the Suns, offer their thoughts.
What is the biggest storyline for my team headed into the playoffs?
Joel Lorenzi: What will it take for the Thunder to become the first repeat champion since the 2017-18 Warriors?
Their historically impactful defense stands. Draining. Meticulous. Gilgeous-Alexander has somehow transcended again. He’s more efficient, more precise. Both he and Oklahoma City’s wood-chipper defense will carry their title hopes.
But what about the half-court offense? Will the Thunder’s regular-season developments — like Isaiah Joe’s added attributes or Ajay Mitchell’s poise — translate to the postseason? Will these improvements rear their head when the game slows down?
Next to the San Antonio Spurs, it seems Oklahoma City’s biggest obstacle is … itself.
Doug Haller: Who are these guys?
For much of the first half of the season, Phoenix looked like a team that could capture a top-six seed and maybe win a playoff series — or, at least, scare someone. The Suns haven’t looked like that team in weeks. Part of this is injury related. Jalen Green missed most of the season’s first half, and once he returned, Devin Booker, Dillon Brooks and Grayson Allen were in and out of the lineup with various issues. The Suns spent the regular season’s final weeks trying to rediscover their defensive identity and offensive rhythm.
That remains a work in progress, and they simply haven’t been good enough to overcome it.
Who is the biggest X-factor for my team?
Lorenzi: Ajay Mitchell.
Mitchell is the kind of creator Oklahoma City longed for at times last postseason: a good-sized ballhandler with sound decision-making in case Gilgeous-Alexander is smothered or off the floor. He is a quick thinker who can run an offense, attack closeouts, play with or without the ball, create in isolation or at the end of the clock, and shoot at a decent enough clip to keep a defense honest. He’s also a respectable defender.
He should give the second units a necessary jolt and, potentially, make life easier for Gilgeous-Alexander. With the bothersome schemes awaiting Gilgeous-Alexander, and with Jalen Williams’ shape as a creator still unclear, Mitchell could play an especially large role in the first round.
Haller: Devin Booker.
Can a star player be an X-factor? In this case, yes. Booker is a gifted scorer, among the NBA’s best, but he also prides himself on playing the right way, making the extra pass, hitting the open man.
This is all good. It’s what made Booker so appreciated during the Paris Olympics. He’s a team player. But this Phoenix team needs him to do more.
In the final minutes of a close contest, a contested shot from Booker is better than a contested shot from Green or Brooks. Gilgeous-Alexander is the best player in this series, that’s obvious. But for the Suns to be competitive, Booker, at minimum, has to be a close second.
Jalen Williams only played 33 regular-season games this season. What can he bring to the table as the Thunder prepare for their first-round series against the Suns? (Justin Ford / Getty Images)
What is the biggest concern for my team?
Lorenzi: How close is Jalen Williams to form?
While even a percentage of Williams should be an effective player, the looming question is whether these past several weeks were enough for him to reunite with the necessary burst for the playoffs after he appeared in just 33 regular-season games this season.
He should, in theory, be a better shooter this time around. His wrist isn’t shredded the way it was last year. The defensive versatility is unchanged. But the nagging hamstring injuries down the stretch of the season is the question.
The Thunder are going to need him to at least win them a few games, perhaps with some on-ball creation, if they’re to embark on a title run.
Haller: Can Phoenix close?
Not counting the final regular-season contest against Oklahoma City, a game in which both teams sat most of their best players, the Suns haven’t beaten a good team in a while. Since March 1, they have posted three wins over teams that made the postseason: the Toronto Raptors, the Charlotte Hornets and Golden State.
That doesn’t mean they haven’t been competitive. On April 7, they scored 24 consecutive points in the first quarter against Houston, only to watch the Rockets outscore them 38-21 in the fourth quarter to win easily. Over the last six weeks of the regular season, the Suns ranked No. 27 in fourth-quarter offense. It’s a problem they have not solved.
What is the most intriguing player matchup of the series?
Lorenzi: The Thunder defense versus Devin Booker.
Lu Dort and Booker is the game within the game. Dort attempting to suffocate Booker, deny him the ball and mitigate his attempts. Booker running off screens and sizing him up anyway. Dort has already scratched a few names off his playoff list these past few years.
Booker sent Oklahoma City packing with a game winner in January, but Dort has his share of regular-season data to lean on. Phoenix can’t win so much as a game if Booker is minimized.
Haller: Grayson Allen versus his health.
OK, this is cheating, but it stands. An eighth-year guard, Allen is incredibly important to this Phoenix team. He’s had a career-best season, averaging 16.5 points. Allen has always been an elite shooter, but he’s also become an effective driver, attacking the rim or kicking to open shooters.
The problem is, he’s unreliable. Allen missed 31 games this season with various injuries. He hasn’t played in more than five contests in a row since early February and entered the postseason with left hamstring soreness. Phoenix needs him.
Biggest reason for optimism for my team?
Lorenzi: The defense.
On the wing is a group of pests, all with their own idiosyncrasies and specialties. At the rim stands Chet Holmgren, as skillful as they come when swatting shots. There’s Isaiah Hartenstein and Jaylin Williams, the muscle to Holmgren’s mind, taking on the sturdiest of matchups.
It helps when the guards who lean toward offense all claim a respectable floor of defense: Mitchell, Joe and Gilgeous-Alexander. They’re the league’s best on that side of the floor for two years running.
Haller: In its simplest form, the Suns’ biggest reason for optimism is simply that they’re here.
Six months ago, no one would’ve predicted such a thing. With the league’s most expensive roster last season, they won 36 games and failed to even make the Play-In Tournament. Over the summer, they traded Kevin Durant, parted ways with Bradley Beal and overhauled the roster.
Many thought they were headed for a long season under first-year coach Jordan Ott. Instead, they’ve kept people’s attention.
Prediction?
Lorenzi: These Thunder don’t boast quite the same sense of inevitability as those dynastic Warriors squads of the past, but they’re fairly automatic.
They’re fresh and whole again, and they deploy waves of defenders. Booker, like several others, has a tormented history against Dort, and despite Brooks’ catalytic tendencies, it all feels overbearing for the league’s No. 17-ranked regular-season offense. Series prediction: Thunder in 4.
Haller: At its best, Phoenix played harder and defended better than opponents. That mattered in December and January.
In the playoffs, more talent is needed. Series prediction: Thunder in 4.
Editor’s note: A previous version of this article misstated that LeBron James was the only player in NBA history to be named regular-season MVP and NBA Finals MVP in back-to-back seasons. Two players have done that. Michael Jordan, who did it with the Chicago Bulls in the early 1990s, is the other.