The LA Clippers visit the Denver Nuggets in a win-or-go-home scenario in Game 7 of their first-round series Saturday. Tip-off from Ball Arena is set for 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT / truTV / Max). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NBA odds around the Clippers vs. Nuggets odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.

Regular-season series: Split 2-2

Facing elimination, LA picked up a 111-105 win over Denver in Thursday’s Game 6, covering as a 6-point home favorite with the Over (212.5) cashing. The trio of G James Harden (28 points), F Kawhi Leonard (27), and G Norman Powell (24) went off in the win, combining for 79 of LA’s points. The Clippers hit 13 free throws to Denver’s 6.

The Nuggets’ downfall came in the third quarter, where they were outscored 32-22 in Game 6. F Michael Porter Jr. struggled to make an impact, finishing with just 5 points on 2-of-5 shooting and posting a game-worst -24 plus-minus.

Clippers at Nuggets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:58 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Clippers +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Nuggets -120 (bet $120 to win $100)Against the spread (ATS): Clippers +1.5 (-110) | Nuggets -1.5 (-110)Over/Under (O/U): 205.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)Clippers at Nuggets key injuries

Clippers

Nuggets

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

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Clippers at Nuggets picks and predictionsPrediction

Clippers 107, Nuggets 104

PASS.

I like LA’s odds of winning here as a +100 underdog, but the Clippers’ odds are better ATS and I am not a fan of doubling down on a team’s ML and spread bet for the same game. I recommend passing here and betting on the spread and/or total instead, but if you are okay with the risk of doubling down then divvy up units between LA’s ML and spread.

LEAN CLIPPERS +1.5 (-110).

LA covered the spread in 2 of its 3 wins this series and has been the much better team ATS this season, sitting at 49-37-2, while Denver is just 40-46-2 ATS, including the playoffs.

Nuggets G Russell Westbrook has been phenomenal in the last 2 games of this series, averaging 17.5 points and 5.5 rebounds per game over that span, but I expect him to struggle offensively here. Combine that with Porter’s likely offensive struggles due to his shoulder injury, and you see that Denver won’t have enough offensively to cover and win this game.

This is a very slight lean, as the Clippers are just 0-2-1 ATS in the last 3 games of this series.

BET OVER 205.5 (-115).

For the Clippers to win, their defense will need to be elite and contain Denver’s high-powered offense. Still, LA’s own efficiency on offense makes it unlikely that such a low total (205.5) will stay Under. In a Game 7 setting, that number feels too low to confidently back the Under.

The Over has hit in the last 2 games of this series.

That said, LA’s defense is capable of limiting Denver’s offense enough for the Under to hit, which adds a layer of risk to this wager.

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