Survey company Clear Insights has been asking about an arena at Dallas City Hall, the former Valley View Mall site, the AAC, or even another site outside city limits

DALLAS — The WFAA IT team insists otherwise, but sometimes it really is worth clicking the link in a text from an unknown number.

In this case, it was WFAA photojournalist Giovanni Garcia who got the message from “Sarah with Clear Insights,” who said she was “conducting a short survey on issues important to residents of Dallas.” 

He complained about the spam text. I clicked on it. 

Reader, I’ve never been more glad I did. Because that’s where this mystery began. 

The survey that “Sarah” sent had more than 30 questions for Giovanni — ranging from his opinion on city and county leaders (Mayor Eric Johnson, City Manager Kim Tolbert, Judge Clay Jenkins, Commissioner John Wiley Price, etc.) to entities and people tied to the American Airlines Center and the possibility that the Mavs desert it (Las Vegas Sands Corporation, Dallas Stars, Mark Cuban).

The survey asked his opinion on four possible locations at which the Mavericks could play when the contract with the AAC ends after 2031: 

Downtown at Dallas City HallThe former Valley View Mall site at Preston Road and the LBJ FreewayThe current American Airlines Center An unnamed location outside the Dallas City limits, but still inside Dallas County

At this point, there are two points I need to share. First, as a journalist, I’m paid not to have an opinion on this matter. So, to advance from one survey question to another, I selected “unsure,” “I don’t know,” or other similarly ambivalent responses throughout the survey.  

Second, the context of this survey matters. The Mavs and city of Dallas are in high-stakes negotiations on where the team will play when its contract is up. Next month, the city is set to revisit a debate on abandoning its City Hall to (almost certainly) entertain a bid for the Mavericks to build an arena on the site. 

Mavs CEO Rick Welts has said he wants to decide by July where the team will build — and has expressed an interest as recently as April 9 for keeping the team in Dallas. Leaving the city limits for a location still in Dallas County (as the survey alludes to) would be a surprise — though there is that chunk of land held by the Mavs-owning Las Vegas Sands Corporation in Irving waiting for development.  

The survey asks a further multiple-choice question about this too: “Which best describes how important it is to you that the Dallas Mavericks play their games in an arena within the Dallas city limits?” (Responses survey takers can choose from range from “very important” to “not at all important.”)

Now back to the survey — and another chunk of interesting questions about crime in downtown (which the city says is getting better): 

“Which best describes your level of concern regarding crime near Dallas City Hall?””Which best describes your level of concern regarding crime near the American Airlines Center?”

The survey wraps up with perhaps the most interesting set of questions: It asks about a potential “future ballot measure regarding the financing and construction of a new arena.” 

Specifically, it asks the following: “If an election were held today for the planning, construction and financing of a multi-purpose arena for professional and amateur sports including professional basketball, concerts and other civic, charitable or community events, and to impose a hotel/motel tax of 2% and a car rental tax of 5%, would you vote yes, in favor or no, against such a proposition.” 

In other words, how likely are you to vote for a tax hike to pay for the new arena? That’s the first we’ve heard (publicly) of that possibility.

But the survey wasn’t done. Next came a set of multiple-choice questions that appeared to be feeling out talking points you may hear down the line when it comes to that potential tax hike. The survey asks whether the following statements make you more or less likely to support the ballot measure. Among them: 

“Because the Dallas Mavericks would contribute several hundred million dollars to the construction of the arena, this measure is part of a well-planned, public-private partnership.””The new arena project will build new on-ramps and off-ramps for easier access for fans arriving to and then leaving games and events.””The new arena would be a multi-purpose facility that would help finance students’ education with scholarships from events such as science fairs held at the arena.””The current American Airlines Center is outdated, and cannot accommodate the needs of today’s NBA teams and live concerts. This measure will provide much needed improvements.””Hundreds of construction jobs would be created to build the new arena, and these workers will spend money in local stores and restaurants.””Through hotel and rental car tax revenues, out-of-towners would help pay for the new arena.””This measure would mean the average increase people would pay for a hotel stay is about 2 to 3 dollars per night, but residents who stay at local hotels are exempt upon proof of residency.”

We turned to two political consultants — Brian Mayes and Vinny Minchillo — for their expert insight on the poll. Both agreed it is clear this is a professionally done survey, designed to test the waters not only for the Mavs’ upcoming decision on the arena site, but also the next step — paying for it. 

Mayes suggested it could indicate the team is floating the idea of: a.) leaving the city of Dallas for a Dallas County suburb and/or b.) getting a county-wide ballot measure increasing hotel and rental car taxes on the ballot — possibly by the November election. (He said, in his experience, the midterm voter demographic is younger and more likely to support a new arena.)

Minchillo said that, while the possibility of a November ballot is still in play, his read was that this was “the kind of survey I do when I’m dipping my toe in the water.” 

“They’re doing what we call ‘message testing,'” he said. 

But he agreed with Mayes that it’s clear: “They are really looking at a public-private partnership where the team puts up hundreds of millions of dollars, and the voters would be expected to put up quite a bit of money too.”

That’s speculation. But it’s an informed guess, too. Mayes has worked on a similar initiative to help pay for AT&T Stadium back in the day, he said. And Minchillo, who has worked on campaigns from city council to the presidency, “reads polls for fun and for profit.”  

Mayes estimates a survey of this nature would cost between $10,000 to $15,000. Minchillo said he estimates closer to $20,000 to $30,000. Which brings us to the biggest part of this mystery: Who paid for this survey? 

A city of Dallas spokesperson said it isn’t them (the city has launched a separate survey of its own), but said the city did say it has heard about another survey, but that it doesn’t know who is behind the effort. Through a spokesperson, the Las Vegas Sands Corporation says it didn’t hire Clear Insights, either. And, no surprise here, but Clear Insights also didn’t get back to us about who paid them.

Mayes and Minchillo both suspect it is the Mavs — or a Mavs-aligned consultant, possibly with a developer or two attached for good measure, Minchillo hypothesized. 

Said a Mavs spokesperson when we asked if the team paid for the survey: “We don’t have anything to share on the record on this.”Â