The NBA Draft Lottery will once again play a major role in shaping the future of the Sacramento Kings, who will enter May 10th with the fifth-best odds after losing a tiebreaker to the Utah Jazz.
Both teams finished 22–60, and while Utah won the coin flip to slot ahead of Sacramento in order, it doesn’t impact the lottery math. The Kings retain identical odds to the Jazz, keeping their chances unchanged despite the technical drop.
Sacramento holds an 11.5% chance to land the No. 1 overall pick and a 45.2% chance to jump into the top four.
In the current lottery format, those are meaningful numbers. Teams outside the top three regularly make significant jumps, and the difference between fourth and fifth in this case is largely cosmetic.
Losing the ‘coinflip’ may have stung in real-time, but the Kings remain in position to capitalize if the ping-pong balls bounce their way.
(Photo by Jeff Haynes/NBAE via Getty Images)
More on the NBA Draft Lottery
Recent NBA Draft Lottery history only adds to the intrigue, especially when it comes to the team with the fifth-best odds.
In 2025, the Philadelphia 76ers jumped two spots from fifth odds to secure the No. 3 pick, selecting VJ Edgecombe.
In 2024, the San Antonio Spurs moved up one spot to No. 4 and drafted Stephon Castle—a move that paid immediate dividends, as Castle went on to win Rookie of the Year.
The upward movement continues in 2023, when the Portland Trail Blazers climbed two spots to No. 3, landing Scoot Henderson.
In 2021, the Cleveland Cavaliers also jumped from fifth odds to the No. 3 pick, selecting Evan Mobley, who quickly became a foundational piece.
The only recent exception came in 2022, when the Indiana Pacers dropped one spot to No. 6 and selected Bennedict Mathurin. Even then, the slide was minimal compared to the multiple instances of teams jumping up.
(Photo by Jennifer Pottheiser/NBAE via Getty Images)
The takeaway is straightforward: teams with the fifth-best odds in the NBA Draft Lottery rarely stay put.
Four of the last five have improved their position, with several jumping into the top three—and in San Antonio’s case, turning that movement into an immediate-impact, award-winning rookie.
For Sacramento, the message is clear. Losing the tiebreaker to Utah doesn’t meaningfully change the outlook.
With a nearly coin-flip chance at landing in the top four and strong historical precedent for upward movement, the Sacramento Kings remain firmly in the mix to walk away from the NBA Draft Lottery with a difference-making talent.
When is the next Sacramento Kings offseason date of interest?
The Sacramento Kings will now look ahead to the highly anticipated NBA Draft Lottery, which is set for Sunday, May 10th.
Sacramento hasn’t secured the top pick in the NBA Draft since 1989, when it selected center Pervis Ellison with the first overall selection.
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Upcoming Sacramento Kings & NBA Offseason Schedule
Tuesday, April 14th – NBA Play-In Tournament begins
Saturday, April 18th – NBA Playoffs begin
Sunday, May 10th – NBA Draft Lottery
Thursday, June 4th– NBA Finals begin
Thursday, June 25th – NBA Draft (Round 1)
Friday, June 26th – NBA Draft (Round 2)
Tuesday, June 30th – NBA Free Agency negotiation period begins (3 PM PT)
Thursday, July 9th – NBA Las Vegas Summer League begins
Monday, July 13th – Free Agency moratorium ends / signings can become official
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