Tennessee basketball forward Nate Ament (Photo via @Vol_Hoops on X)
We’re still waiting for Nate Ament’s NBA declaration decision ahead of Friday’s deadline, but there’s obviously a very real chance that the star freshman wing heads to the association following his lone season in Knoxville. Ament undoubtedly improved as the season went on, finishing as one of Tennessee’s top players by the end of the regular season and, despite an injury that limited him during the postseason, helped the Vols reach the Elite Eight.
Yahoo Sports NBA senior analyst Kevin O’Connor dropped a very interesting nugget about Ament’s status on Wednesday, though. While writing up his NBA Mock Draft 3.0, O’Connor tagged Ament to go 18th overall to the Charlotte Hornets. He writes that Ament “could very well end up in the lottery,” but also that “there’s a strong possibility he slips.” Regardless, though, he believes that the Hornets wouldn’t be able to pass up on the former Vol if he does get to their spot at 18.
While a No. 18 projection is interesting in its own right, it’s not nearly the juiciest bit of information to come out of O’Connor’s write-up for Ament. The Yahoo Sports senior analyst also reveals what his sources have been telling him about the possibility that Ament returns to Tennessee.
“League front office executives tell me that [Ament’s] agency, LIFT Sports Management, is split on the decision because they believe that Ament could be the No. 1 pick in 2027,” O’Connor writes. “If Ament falls outside of the lottery, he’d be playing for less money this year and potentially hurting his future earnings. For financial reasons it may make sense to return, and more importantly, for his own development to get one more year to improve physically and progress his skills.”
A return to Tennessee would obviously be a massive development for both Ament and the Volunteers. For Ament’s side, it would be a stark change from his original preseason projection, but it would give him a great chance to hone his skills with another year under Barnes. For Tennessee’s side of things, it would return a 2026 NBA Draft pick to a team that has already gone out and signed five four-star players through the transfer portal to create a truly monstrous lineup.
“Players who can handle, shoot off the dribble and stand at 6-10 don’t grow on trees,” O’Connor writes about Ament. “This physical foundation kept Ament in lottery consideration even after a dreadful start to his freshman season when he struggled to score efficiently and make an impact defensively. But over the second half of the year for Tennessee, he flipped a switch and shots began to fall. He averaged 23.8 points over a six-game stretch in January and February that reminded everyone why he was a top recruit in the country.”
More From RTI: The Finances Of Tennessee Wing Nate Ament’s NBA Draft Decision
It is important to note that Ament did not enter the transfer portal ahead of the April 21 deadline, meaning that a return to college basketball would not see him go to another team. At this point, it’s between Tennessee and the NBA.
Ament’s projection has clearly been tough for analysts to get a handle on. He entered the season as a Top 5 projected pick, but sank back to around a Top 10 pick for much of the season. If his draft range continues to widen, it would make more sense than before to return to college basketball for another season to raise his stock even more.
In early April, Tennessee assistant coach Gregg Polinsky shared his thoughts on Ament’s possible NBA future during an interview on Fanrun Radio’s The Drive with Russell Smith. Polinsky detailed why he felt like Ament needed to go to the NBA, but did say that if his projection moves back to the 18-25 range, he might consider coming back. Quick reminder that O’Connor’s projection on Wednesday was to the Hornets at No. 18.
“Of course, he’s gotta go (to the draft),” Polinsky said on FanRun radio. “Unless his people, his family is great with him coming back. They’re amazing. Amazing family. But if he were my son, I’m telling him he’s got to go. Look, if he’s hearing a number that, meaning not money, but hey, you’re probably going to go 18-25, really? Okay, well, maybe I consider coming back. But I doubt it, guys. I’m going to be surprised if his name is not called in the lottery. And how high it can be in the lottery, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. So happy we had Nate Ament, and he shared his life and his talent with us. It’ll be one of the great things that I’ll remember, I’ll tell you that.”
There are lots of internal questions to be had over the next 24 hours, but O’Connor’s report certainly makes things that much more interesting from the outside looking in.
For more on the financial side of Nate Ament’s upcoming decision, click here.