The NBA has settled on a plan to fight tanking after one of the most tanking-filled regular seasons in recent memory, according to multiple reports.
The league has reportedly informed its 30 general mangers of a new plan that will, among other things, expand the draft lottery to 16 teams (from 14), penalize the league’s bottom three teams and simplify lottery odds down to whether a team gets one, two or three ping-pong balls.
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The framework reportedly has the support from a majority of teams, though minor modifications could be made before the proposal is put forward for an owners vote on May 28. If approved, it would reportedly take effect starting with the 2027 NBA Draft.
How does the NBA’s proposed anti-tanking system work?
The new “3-2-1” structure, also reported by Tim Reynolds of the Associated Press, would create a system where each team gets a certain number of ping-pong balls to win the No. 1 pick. Here’s how it breaks down going in reverse order of the standings and then play-in game participants:
No. 1-3: two ping-pong balls (5.4%)
No. 4-10: three ping-pong balls (8.1%)
Teams in 9-10 play-in games: two ping-pong balls (5.4%)
Losers of 7-8 play-in games: one ping-pong ball (2.7%)
So the new system is designed to incentivize non-playoff teams to try to stay competitive late in the season, and it will also give the No. 8 seeds in the East and West at least one shot at the top pick. This makes the NBA the first of the four major North American leagues to officially penalize its worst teams in the standings.
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All of that is a significant change from the current system, which gives every non-playoff team a certain chance at the top pick, topped off at 14% for the three worst teams.
There are reportedly additional safeguards as well. The proposal forbids teams from winning the top pick in back-to-back seasons or winning a top-five pick in three consecutive seasons. Having that rule in place in previous seasons would have impacted a number of playoff rosters.
The league will also have expanded disciplinary authority to penalize tanking through the reduction of teams’ lottery odds and/or modification of draft position.
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Again, that’s more aggressive than the current system, which has so far consisted of NBA commissioner Adam Silver hitting openly tanking teams with six-digit fines.
The NBA appears to be doing all of this on a trial basis, as the proposal reportedly includes a sunset provision that makes the system expire after the 2029 NBA Draft. At that point, the board of governors can either keep it in place or replace the system.
All of this has been in the works for months, in reaction to a season where five different teams finished with more than 60 losses and five more teams had at least 50 losses. The Washington Wizards emerged from the muck with the top position, which guarantees them a top-five pick in what is considered the deepest draft class in recent memory.
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A different system was publicly floated Monday, which would have further expanded the lottery to 18 teams.