(Mandatory Credit: David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images)
Tanking around the NBA has been nothing short of a hot topic over the last several months. In an attempt to curb it, the league has delivered multiple different “anti-tanking” proposals to team executives to consider. The three presented last month, with one — which would expand the lottery from 14 to 18 teams, where the bottom-10 would receive flat odds of eight percent, with the remaining 20 percent being split amongst the other eight — garnering the most momentum.
The NBA proposed another on Tuesday, called the “3-2-1 lottery”. Here’s a quick rundown:
The most ping pong balls a team could receive is three.
The bottom-three teams — in the “relegation zone” — receive two each
Teams that finish fourth through 10th at the bottom of the standings — good enough to avoid the relegation zone, but not good enough to make the play-in — receive three each.
Nos. 9 and 10 seeds receive two each
Teams that lose the No. 7 v. 8 play-in in each conference receive just one (the winner doesn’t get any).
Teams cannot win the lottery two straight years
Teams cannot finish in top-5 of the lottery in three straight years
This new proposal would be put into effect for the 2027 NBA Draft and end in 2029, on the cusp of when the current CBA expires. Voting won’t take place until May 28, so it’s still far from being ratified.
But let’s delve into a fun little thought exercise: How would this affect the Miami Heat?! Let’s examine!
How NBA’s new lottery proposal affects the Miami Heat:
For one, the Heat don’t completely control the fortunes of their first-round pick next season. But they would own their pick if they make the lottery. And if they aren’t a top-7 seed by the start of next year’s playoffs, under this reformed lottery, they are technically a lottery team.
Miami was a play-in team for the fourth straight season in 2025-26, getting bounced in the 9-10 play-in game and appearing in their first lottery in over a half-decade. Should they make the lottery again, that’d either mark a fifth-straight appearance or whiffing on the play-in entirely, which this new proposal incentivizes.
Coming off another disappointing campaign, there is a lot of pressure on the Heat front office this offseason to pick a direction. They’re stuck in the middle, but this new proposal may have opened a new remedy to that.
It will still take plenty of luck — something this organization has had as it pertains to the lottery. In 11 lottery appearances, the Heat have never moved up. They’ve moved back from their projected pick six times, including by three spots twice.
Obviously, the Heat don’t need to full blow tank to get back into contention. But every single recent champion has, more or less, built through the draft. A lot of luck is needed to either 1.) acquire a top-5 or 10 pick, a historically good range for nabbing a future All-NBA cornerstone (hey, Dwyane Wade!!!) or 2.) Somehow hit on a talent (i.e. Nikola Jokic) that nobody foresaw in the later picks, which is far more rare.
If the Heat hypothetically finished fourth through 10 in the bottom of the standings, they’d have an 8.1 percent chance at landing the No. 1 pick. Yes, six other teams would have similar odds. But even if they acquired just two ping pong balls, they’d have as great a chance as the three-worst teams in the NBA — a 5.4 percent chance. That’s a better chance than they have at landing a top-4 pick (4.8 percent) now, and more than quadruple the chance they have now (1.0) at No. 1 overall.
At this current juncture, Miami’s destiny won’t change until it has a franchise-changing talent not named Bam Adebayo. Wade isn’t walking through those doors anytime soon.
All it will take is a little luck, and this new proposal allows space for that.
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