We are days away from the 2026 NBA Draft lottery, where the Miami Heat have the 13th-best odds. (Photo courtesy of the NBA // Draft Lottery Logo)
Ever since the end of the Miami Heat’s underwhelming 2025-26 season, which resulted in an early exit in yet another play-in game, the biggest point of interest for many — myself included — revolved around one thing: The NBA’s draft lottery.
At one point, there was a chance it could’ve moved up to No. 12. But as a result of getting bounced in the play-in, paired with its 43-39 regular season record, the Miami Heat will have the 13th-best lottery odds ahead of the 2026 draft. The lottery is in three days, marking their first appearance over the last half-decade, and while there’s reason to be somewhat optimistic, history suggests that fans should expect to be picking, well, 13th.
The Miami Heat have not had favorable lottery luck:
(Photo Courtesy of the NBA)
Apropos of a loose ball in basketball, sometimes you need the ping-pong ball to bounce the right way.
For the Heat, that fortune has yet to occur.
In 11 previous lottery appearances, Miami has never moved up. In fact, in six of those 11 instances, they’ve moved down:
2008: Moved down one spot (from No. 1 to 2), drafting Michael Beasley
2003: Moved down one spot (from No. 4 to 5), drafting Dwyane Wade
1993: Moved down one spot (from No. 9 to 10), drafting Lindsey Hunter, whose rights were traded to the Detroit Pistons
1991: Moved down three spots (from No. 2 to 5), drafting Steve Smith
1990: Moved down one spot (from No. 2 to 3), drafting Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf, whose rights were traded to the Denver Nuggets
1989: Moved down three slots (from No. 1 to 4), drafting Glen Rice
The Heat have only appeared in this lottery format once (2019) since it was ratified in September of 2027. Ironically enough, they were also 13th pre-lottery … and, evidently, 13th post-lottery, ultimately drafting Tyler Herro that June.
What does this all mean?:
With the 13th-best odds, the Miami Heat have a 4.7 percent chance at a top-4 pick and a one percent chance at the No. 1 pick. They will have a 92.9 percent chance at sticking at 13, while a 2.3 percent chance of somehow dropping to 14.
If history suggests anything, it’s that the latter two possibilities are the most likely.
The good thing is that, in this system, old history doesn’t hold a ton of weight. Though any jump into the top-14 would require a miracle. No team outside the top-11 pre-lottery has ever made the leap into the top-4. Last year, the Dallas Mavericks made the jump from 10 to 1; in 2024, the Atlanta Hawks jumped from 10 to 1. Before then, the only other team was the Los Angeles Lakers in 2019, who lept from 11 to 4.
For any fans salivating over a top-4 pick, crossing your fingers and toes may not even be enough. Or maybe it will be. The proof will be in the pudding.
To dig itself out of the mess it created, Miami needs luck — and a lot of it. Without luck, it will be hoping that it can pry a Giannis Antetokounmpo away from Milwaukee, or another superstar that becomes free, in an attempt to salvage an arguably unsalvageable situation.
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