(Mandatory Credit: Ed Zurga/Getty Images)
Every season, in the months, weeks, days and even hours leading up to the draft, you’ll see a flurry of big boards of many evaluators pinpointing where they’d rank each prospect. For me, this is my second year doing a big board; it’s far from complete, but you can check that out here!
However, what most ignore is team context. They do it in a vacuum on what they would do if everything were equal, not what they would do for each team given several variables.
Thus, I am launching my own Miami Heat-specific big board for the first time ever, ranking 60 prospects who still have their name in the draft at the time of publication! Early entrants have until May 27 to withdraw.
This was given plenty of thought and may mirror my actual big board, to a certain extent. This is a rough draft (hence the 1.0 title) of what it will look like on draft night, but I organized them into multiple tiers. There are myriad players where I shifted them between multiple tiers, especially in the top-20/25, where the talent pool is quite deep relative to most draft classes.
Without further ado, let’s dive into it!
“Not happening, but these players would completely alter the franchise’s trajectory” tier:
1. AJ Dybantsa, F, BYU
2. Darryn Peterson, G, Kansas
3. Caleb Wilson, F, North Carolina
4. Darius Acuff Jr, G, Arkansas
5. Cameron Boozer, F, Duke
My Miami Heat top-5 hasn’t changed since the lottery results were revealed. For more on why I have each player where they are, click here!
The “Pinch me, I’m dreaming!” guard tier:
6. Kingston Flemings, G, Houston
7. Brayden Burries, G, Arizona
8. Mikel Brown Jr., G, Louisville
9. Keaton Wagler, G, Illinois
This is a historically good point guard class. And outside of Acuff, who separated himself as the best point guard in the draft during the season, these four are the next-best options.
I don’t see Wagler falling outside of the top-5 or 6, but his lack of sheer burst and loose ballhandling has me slightly concerned, from a Heat perspective, but not enough for him to fall out of my top-9 due to his incredible IQ, feel and 3-point shooting.
My favorite realistic targets at 13 tier:
10. Cameron Carr, G/F, Baylor
11. Labaron Philon, G, Alabama
12. Tounde Yessoufou, G/F, Baylor
13. Morez Johnson Jr., F/C, Michigan
14. Chris Cenac, F, Houston
15. Amari Allen, F, Alabama
Carr has long been one of my favorites, given his size (6-foot-5, 7’0.75” wingspan), athleticism (38.0-inch standing vert, 42.5-inch max vert) and 3-point shooting chops. He’ll have to continue to bulk up (184.4 pounds) and improve his ballhandling in tight spaces. But I’d have full faith and confidence he’ll continue to grow in every way with Miami, hypothetically.
Philon has the potential to crack the tier above him long-term, too. He led the SEC in scoring, has incredibly dynamic ball handling and close-quarters navigation and was quite good defensively, despite being undersized. He’d be a slam-dunk lead guard to nab at 13.
As it pertains to 12-15, I’m higher on them than the consensus by a fair margin. Each of those four players plays both ends with high motors, good positional size, athleticism and versatile/translatable skillsets.
The complete wildcard tier:
16. Jayden Quaintance, C, Kentucky
Elite defensive tape; outstanding measurables and athleticism; supremely versatile (on defense), coordinated, and disruptive. But very questionable health that bears a lot of attention.
That’s Jayden Quaintance. The 18-year-old played 24 games as a freshman at Arizona State before suffering a torn ACL and meniscus, and was shut down after just four games this year at Kentucky after his knee flared up. The tape is beyond tantalizing; the thought of him and Adebayo tag-teaming defensively is terrifying.
Though the injury history is beyond worrisome. We aren’t privy to the medicals, but the tape is so damn intriguing that drafting him at 13 is a pure upside swing.
The double fudge tier:
17. Aday Mara, C, Michigan
18. Yaxel Lendeborg, F, Michigan
19. Ebuka Okorie, G, Stanford
20. Hannes Steinbach, C, Washington
I love chocolate. I love fudge. At times, my sweet tooth is overly demanding. But double the fudge is a little too rich for me, hence the name of this tier.
Each of these four names is intriguing in its own way. Mara is a mountain with mobility and fun passing chops; Lendeborg is a do-it-all big wing who has only been playing basketball for 6-7 years; Okorie is a small, albeit lanky guard who’s quicker than a hiccup; Steinbach is a phenomenal offensive rebounder and shot-blocker with good low-post footwork and touch.
But at 13, they’re a little too rich for me. At the end of the day, I’d trust the Heat’s developmental process. But I wouldn’t take these guys at 13.
The “Trade back candidates” tier:
21. Christian Anderson, G, Texas Tech
22. Flory Bidunga, C, Kansas
23. Billy Richmond III, G, Arkansas
24. Karim Lopez, F, New Zealand
25. Nate Ament, F, Tennessee
If the Heat traded back toward the end of the teens — or even 20s — these would be my foremost targets if any of the other aforementioned names aren’t there. I’m much higher on Richmond — he’s only a jumper and a consistent half-court handle away, truthfully — and, conversely, much lower on Lopez and Ament than the consensus. The Heat don’t typically trade back, so I don’t know if that’s much of a possibility anyway.
Favorite potential second-round targets tier:
26. Zuby Ejiofor, C, St. John’s
27. Koa Peat, F, Arizona
28. Allen Graves, F, Santa Clara
29. Dailyn Swain, G/F, Texas
30. Isaiah Evans, G, Duke
31. Bennett Stirtz, G, Iowa
32. Emanuel Sharpe, G/F, Houston
The players I struggled with most in this tier are Peat, Graves, Swain and Stirtz. Peat can’t shoot outside of 10 feet, making his fit with Miami (and most NBA teams) quite questionable, despite his athletic pop and brute strength. Graves is a cerebral player who I think should return to school for more reps and to work on his conditioning. I have serious questions regarding Swain’s jumper (or lack thereof) and defense (which I’m lower on) — and he’s been a name that the organization has reportedly had interest in at 13. Stirtz is an exceptional shot creator, but I don’t know how he’d fare in an offense where ball screens are extinct.
Those players had to all end up somewhere. For now, this was my tier for them, evidently. I changed them around a bunch. I probably will by the next iteration (which is TBD).
The rest of my top-60 (likely two ways):
33. Joshua Jefferson, F, Iowa State
34. Jaden Bradley, G, Arizona
35. Matt Able, G, NC State
36. Luigi Suigo, C, Italy
37. Milan Momcilovic, F, Iowa State
38. Trevon Brazile, F, Arkansas
39. Malachi Moreno, C, Kentucky
40. Henri Veesaar, C, North Carolina
41. Otega Oweh, G, Kentucky
42. Meleek Thomas, G, Arkansas
43. Alex Karaban, F, UConn
44. Richie Saunders, G/F, BYU (injured)
45. Maliq Brown, C, Duke
46. Dillon Mitchell, F, St. John’s
47. Ja’Kobi Gillespie, G, Tennessee
48. Tarris Reed Jr., C, UConn
49. Tyler Tanner, G, Vanderbilt
50. Braden Smith, G, Purdue
51. Aaron Nkrumah, G/F, Tennessee State
52. Felix Okpara, C, Tennessee
53. Milos Uzan, G, Houston
54. Baba Miller, F/C, Cincinnati
55. Tobi Lawal, F, Virginia Tech
56. Andrej Stojakovic, G/F, Illinois
57. Ryan Conwell, G, Louisville
58. Quadir Copeland, G, NC State
59. Jeremy Fears Jr., G, Michigan State
60. Bruce Thornton, G, Ohio State
What are your thoughts on my top-60? Let us know in the comments!
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