The NBA’s tanking reforms are unfair (no matter how they affect the Rockets)

In recent years, I’ve come to wonder whether I’m on the autism spectrum.

Then again, I kind of think everyone’s on the spectrum now. That could be selection bias – I’m mildly autistic, so I gravitate to mildly autistic people. It could be a reflection of bastardization of diagnostic and clinical language. It could also just be accurate.

One symptom of autism is “a profound, often unwavering commitment to fairness, equality, and moral correctness”. I used to find this annoying. It felt like a sneaky way of virtue signalling. “Oh no, I have a neurodevelopmental disorder that makes me a really good person!“. Now, I feel like it’s another symptom I might endorse:

Because I am absolutely seething about the NBA’s new anti-tanking reforms, even if they might benefit my beloved Houston Rockets.

New NBA tanking rules patently unfair

So, the Memphis Grizzlies acquired three future first-round picks from the Utah Jazz in exchange for Jaren Jackson Jr. The new rules state that a team’s pick can’t convey in the top five for three consecutive seasons. The Jazz have picked in the top five for two straight years, so now, their 2027 pick can’t land there:

Even though the Grizzlies own it.

If anyone can locate the iota of sense that makes, someone tell me. I’ve seen some attempts to justify the rule, but they have been feeble.

Some have said the Grizzlies should be punished for trading Jackson Jr. in a deliberate bid to get worse. Hogwash. Teams can’t get younger anymore? This is especially outlandish in an increasingly punitive CBA. So the Grizzlies have to keep Jackson Jr.’s salary on the books, even though they’re not winning, or else they’re punished? The league is bullying one of their smallest markets directly into a space between a rock and a hard place.

“Well, the Jazz acquired Jackson Jr. so they could stop tanking. They likely weren’t sending the Grizzlies a high lottery pick anyway”. Likely true, and incidentally, not the point. Who’s to say Jackson Jr. doesn’t suffer a season-ending injury on day one?

The official position from the league is that they didn’t want to create an imbalance in the value of acquired vs original picks. Sure, but the Grizzlies acquired the pick with the understanding that it held a certain value. The broader point is that you can’t change the rules of a game in the middle of the game. You buy a lottery ticket with the understanding that you probably won’t win the lottery. You would not buy a lottery ticket knowing that it was impossible to win the lottery.

It’s garbage. It’s unfair by any measure.

Does it affect the Rockets?

Rockets could benefit from rule changes

When Rafael Stone traded the second-best player in the history of an old NBA franchise for nothing but draft capital, he had a vision. Just two years later, he would state on record that “the NBA punishes the middle…that’s just the way the system is set up.”

We can safely assume that principle informed his decision-making process.

The rule changes incentivise the middle. In theory, the Rockets also had the rug pulled out from under them. It shouldn’t hurt them, but that’s mere serendipity. Luckily, the teams that owe Houston picks (the Nets, Suns, and Mavericks) are likely to land broadly in the middle going forward.

This could also open up paths for Houston. The fear of regression should be less prominent. If they ultimately decide (re: realize) that Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson can’t play together, retooling at the expense of a handful of regular-season wins will be more palpable with the flattened odds.

In terms of the NBA viewing experience, this may not even be so bad. Personally, my least favorite era of Rockets basketball since becoming a fan in (roughly) 1998 was the Louis Scola / Kevin Martin era. If the Rockets had a chance of adding a young John Wall to the 2009-10 team that went 42-40, it would have piqued my interest.

Personally, I’ve never considered tanking a major issue. Most of this feels like fear-mongering designed to pander to the gambling companies. Still, nobody should be fiercely opposed to disincentivizing the practice. If you love tanking, you’re weird.

What I am (as it turns out) passionately opposed to is unfairness. There is no rational reason why the league couldn’t amend the rules to “grandfather in” the Grizzlies’ incoming pick.

You don’t need any diagnoses to understand that.

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