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The 7-10 matchup is always one of the toughest picks in the men’s NCAA tournament bracket. Sure, a No. 10 seed beating a No. 7 seed is a difference on the seed line, but it happens so often that it’s rarely a surprise when it does. In fact, No. 7 seeds are 100-63 all-time against No. 10 seeds since expansion in 1985.

Here’s everything you need to know about No. 10 seeds vs. No. 7 seeds in March Madness.

History of 10 vs. 7 seeds in March Madness

Here are all of the times No. 10 seeds have beaten No. 7 seeds, since 2010:

10s over 7s since 2010

Year
Result
Score

2026
Texas A&M def. Saint Mary’s
63-50

2025
New Mexico def. Marquette
75-66

2025
Arkansas def. Kansas
79-72

2024
Colorado def. Florida
102-100

2023
Penn State def. Texas A&M
76-59

2022
Miami (Fla.) def. USC
68-66

2021
Maryland def. UConn
63-54

2021
Rutgers def. Clemson
60-56

2019
Florida def. Nevada
70-61

2019
Iowa def. Cincinnati
79-72

2019
Minnesota def. Louisville
86-76

2018
Butler def. Arkansas
79-62

2017
Wichita State def. Dayton
64-58

2016
VCU def. Oregon State
75-67

2016
Syracuse def. Dayton
70-51

2015
Ohio State def. VCU
75-72

2014
Stanford def. New Mexico
58-53

2013
Iowa State def. Notre Dame
76-58

2012
Xavier def. Notre Dame
67-63

2012
Purdue def. St. Mary’s
72-69

2011
Florida State def. Texas A&M
57-50

2010
Georgia Tech def. Oklahoma State
64-59

2010
Missouri def. Clemson
86-78

2010
St. Mary’s def. Richmond
80-71

Some more tidbits:

In total, No. 10 seeds hold a 63-100 record against No. 7 seeds since the NCAA tournament field expanded in 1985, a 38.65 win percentage.
West Virginia had the widest margin of victory for a No. 10 seed when it beat Temple, 82-52, in 1998.
There has been only one tournament where No. 7 seeds were swept by 10s (1999).
On the flip side, there have only been two tournaments where all four No. 7 seeds advanced: 1993 and 2007.
No. 10 seeds went 3-1 against 7s in 2019. Florida, Iowa and Minnesota were the lower seeds who advanced. Wofford was the only No. 7 seed to win.
In 2021, No. 7 Oregon’s advancement past No. 10 VCU happened because COVID-19 protocols and a no-contest designation.

Recent/most memorable 10-7 moments

Santa Clara, making its first tournament appearance since 1996, had 7 seed Kentucky on the ropes, drilling a three with two seconds to play in regulation. But Kentucky’s Otega Oweh scurried up the court, banking in a buzzer-beater to force OT with the Broncos. The Wildcats prevailed in the extra period, 89-84. 

In a back-and-forth battle in 2025 between two programs led by historic coaches in John Calipari and Bill Self, Calipari’s Arkansas squad outlasted Self’s Kansas team, winning 79-72. The Razorbacks limited the Jayhawks to five points in the last four minutes and 30 seconds of the second half.

This was one of two 10-seed wins in 2025. No. 10 New Mexico beat No. 7 Marquette for the program’s first tournament win since 2012.

Arkansas vs. Kansas – First round highlights

In 2024, Colorado took out Florida in a wild 102-100 final that didn’t even need OT to reach that point total. KJ Simpson led the Buffaloes with 23 points and made a late shot that proved to be the winner.

Full ending, game winner from Colorado’s wild first-round win over Florida

Two 10 seeds won in 2021: Maryland beat UConn and Rutgers defeated Clemson. Rutgers’ 60-56 win was the Scarlet Knights’ first in the NCAA tournament since 1983.

Rutgers vs. Clemson: Extended highlights from 2021 NCAA tournament

The 2019 tournament saw three No. 10 seeds advance by an average of 8.7 points. First there was Florida over Nevada:

Florida survives first round battle with Nevada

Then, Minnesota over Louisville:

Minnesota advances past Louisville

Also Iowa over Cincinnati:

Iowa knocks off Cincinnati, 79-72

Remember Syracuse’s magical Final Four run in 2016? It started with a decisive win over Dayton in the first round:

First Round: Syracuse flies by Dayton

And before Syracuse, the last time a No. 10 seed reached the Elite Eight, Steph Curry’s Davidson Wildcats pulled out a six-point win over Gonzaga to start one of the best Cinderella stories in college basketball history.

Curry leads Davidson to the Elite Eight in 2008

Joe Boozell has been a college basketball writer for NCAA.com since 2015. His work has also appeared in Bleacher Report, FOXSports.com and NBA.com. Joe’s claim to fame since joining NCAA.com: he’s predicted the correct national championship game twice… and picked the wrong winner both times. Growing up, Joe squared off against both Anthony Davis and Frank Kaminsky in the Chicagoland basketball scene. You can imagine how that went.

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