For the past year, the future of LeBron James has been the subject of speculation. Will the 41-year-old return to the Lakers? Will he go back home to the Cavaliers? Will he retire and end one of the most decorated careers in North American sports history?
Kalshi’s LeBron James’ Next Team market shows another option has emerged as the most likely scenario. As of Tuesday morning, the Golden State Warriors are considered extremely likely to land the King after he informed the Lakers he would play the 2026-27 season elsewhere. The Warriors were trading at $0.48 on Monday and are now trading at $0.74 to land James. The Cavaliers, James’ hometown team, also got a bump from $0.11 to $0.18 per share with the latest news.
James’ next teamMarket rates at KalshiWarriors$0.74Lakers or retire$0.02Cavaliers$0.18Heat$0.05Spurs$0.01
On Monday morning, ESPN’s Shams Charania reported that forward Draymond Green will decline his $27.7 million player option for the upcoming season. With that salary off the books or potentially reduced at a later date (note: both James and Green are represented by agent Rich Paul), the Warriors have flexibility under the salary cap to offer James in free agency. They also simultaneously could pursue a trade for Wizards center Anthony Davis.
The possibility for a James-Davis-Steph Curry Big 3 in the Bay Area (with Green also an option at a reduced number) could be enough to sway James to move from Southern to Northern California. James, Davis and Curry all played together on the 2024 USA Olympic basketball team that won the gold medal in Paris.
James is coming off his worst statistical season since he was a 19-year-old rookie in 2003. He averaged a career-low 20.9 points while averaging just 6.1 rebounds per game (third worst of his career).
But he looked reenergized in the playoffs, averaging 23.2 points, 6.7 rebounds and 7.3 assists while shooting 45.9% from the field. He helped a Luka Doncic-less Los Angeles team upset the Rockets in the first round of the postseason before the Lakers were swept by the defending champion Thunder in the Western Conference semifinals.
If James, Davis and Curry join forces again, the Warriors would obviously become a major contender in an already loaded Western Conference. Last season Golden State finished with the 10th best record in the West after Jimmy Butler went down with a season-ending ACL injury in January. The Warriors were eliminated by the Suns in the Play-In Tournament.
The prediction markets are jumping on Golden State for next season in anticipation of James’ arrival. At Kalshi, the Warriors have a 9% chance to win next season’s NBA title. That’s ranks fifth in the NBA and thid in the Western Conference, behind only the Thunder and Spurs. The Warriors are up from 6% on Monday.
2027 NBA championMarket rates at KalshiThunder25%Spurs21%Knicks11%Celtics10%Warriors9%Timberwolves6%Heat5%
Trade the NBA championship at Kalshi and get a $15 bonus after making $15 in trades: