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Shaq talks NBA Finals matchup and NBA on TNT

Shaquille O’Neal joins Sports Seriously to talk about all things NBA and his upcoming Netflix docu-series ‘Power Moves’.

Sports Seriously

It’s time for the 2025 NBA Finals.

It’ll be a battle between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers to determine who will lift the Larry O’Brien trophy at the end of what should be an exciting series with two small market teams.

The Thunder are led by point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, fresh off being named the Most Valuable Player this season and the main catalyst in OKC taking down the Minnesota Timberwolves in five games in the Western Conference Finals.

Then you have the Pacers, who pulled off upsets along the way to their first Finals appearance in a quarter century, capping it off by beating the New York Knicks in six games in the Eastern Conference Finals.

So who will emerge victorious in Game 1 of this year’s NBA Finals?

Here are the betting odds, and our analysis on the spread, total and moneyline prediction for Game 1 between Thunders and Pacers in the NBA Finals:

Odds courtesy of BetMGM as of Thursday, June 4:

Thunder vs. Pacers spread: Thunder -9.5 (-110), Pacers +9.5 (-110)

You may see this gigantic line of 9.5 points and think it’s a crazy number for Game 1 of the NBA Finals.

In reality, it’s not.

The Thunder — who owned the league’s best regular season record at 68-14 — were an astounding 29-2 versus the Eastern Conference this season and a 23-6-2 against the spread (ATS), covering in 79% of those games, which would be the best ever performance over a full season since 2000.

Furthermore, underdogs in Game 1 of the NBA Finals have historically had issues covering the spread in recent memory, going 3-17 ATS in the last 20 years and are a woeful 8-21 ATS dating all the way back to 1996.

Could the Pacers steal one of the games in OKC this series? Potentially. But I don’t see any way that’s happening tonight in Game 1, especially when the Thunder have covered this number in four straight home games and in 7 of 9 contests at Paycom Center this postseason.

Take Oklahoma City Thunder to cover the spread here and win this one by double digits.

Prediction: Thunder -9.5 (-110)

Thunder vs. Pacers total: Over 230.5 points (-115), Under 230.5 points (-105)

Perhaps the most eye opening line for Game 1 is the over/under with the total being 230.5 points.

If the line closes at that number, it’d be the second total in an NBA Finals game to be at 230 points or higher in the last 35 years, with the other instance coming in Game 5 of the 2017 NBA Finals where the total closed at 231 points and the Warriors defeating the Cavaliers 129-120.

Dating back to the Conference Finals, the Thunder went over this number twice and the Pacers did so three times, including the series clinching 125-108 victory against the Knicks in Game 6.

With all that being said, I’m on the under in this one.

The Thunder have been dominant defending their home court this postseason, as they’ve allowed 106 points or fewer in six straight games at home.

It might not be by much at all, but I’m betting there’s 230 or fewer points scored in Game 1.

Prediction: Under 230.5 points (-105)

Thunder vs. Pacers moneyline: Thunder -450 (Bet $450 to win $100), Pacers +340 (Bet $100 to win $340)

Barring an injury or an uncharacteristic poor shooting night from multiple players, the oddsmakers are projecting the Thunder to roll to an easy victory in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.

Given how well they’ve played, especially in OKC, I don’t see that changing either until the Pacers prove they can beat a Thunder team that’s only lost seven times in the regular season and postseason combined on their home court this year.

Things might get closer in Game 2, but the Thunder will roll to an easy win in Game 1, cruising to a 16-point victory and being only three wins away from their first championship.

Prediction: Thunder 121, Pacers 105