And so, it’s another season of bracketology in the books—and not too bad of one either. Here’s a look at my performance:
This was my best performance since 2022 (1 miss, 45 seeded correctly, 21 within 1 line, 1 within 2 lines), so I feel like I’m on the right track in terms of navigating a changed environment.
Here are some things that stuck out to me, particularly in terms of consistency on the part of the Selection Committee, even if I think Division I Men’s Basketball Committee chair/Sun Belt Commissioner Keith Gill’s transparency and frankness is an example that future chairs should follow to make the process more accessible to fans and the media. My North Star is this statement from Seth Davis on the Selection Show: Your Results-Based (backward-looking) metrics that determine selection and your Predictive (forward-looking) metrics that most determine your seeding.
Turning my attention to the Cut Line picture, and Miami (Ohio), Texas, Oklahoma, Auburn, and VCU, among others.
Remember the first part of Seth Davis’s statement, “Your Results-Based (backward-looking) metrics that determine selection.” Something that people either forget or don’t realize is that building the bracket is a multi-step process, and this is something a good bracketologist remembers and incorporates into their work.
Now let’s turn our attention to the second part of the process, seeding, where the three Predictive Metrics (ESPN’s BPI, KenPom, and Bart Torvik’s T-Rank) are more closely scrutinized.
One final point on the two types of metrics. You can also apply the general rule about using Predictive Metrics in seeding when it comes to auto bids (since the Results-Based metrics aren’t as necessary with the teams already included by rule).
My mistakes on this front are partially explained by this too.
And there are our lessons learned for 2027. Tomorrow, I’ll be back with picks.