The Detroit Pistons clearly believe that they have all the leverage in contract talks with restricted free agent Jalen Duren. They have been playing hardball with their All-NBA center rather than giving him what he is looking for, which is likely at least the 25% max, which would be a five-year, $239 million deal. This has resulted in a stalemate that doesn’t seem to have an end in sight.

The front office is also underestimating the leverage Duren has at the negotiating table. A big reason why is that the Pistons seemingly don’t take the threat of the 22-year-old big man playing on his qualifying offer seriously. This is a mistake Detroit may come to regret.

If Detroit continues to low-ball Jalen Duren, qualifying offer will become more appealing

Sure, Duren would be taking a big risk by playing on his qualifying offer, which is a one-year, $9.6 million deal. The idea here would be to try to cash in on unrestricted free agency next summer. There is obviously the chance of an injury and underperformance that could prevent Duren from landing a lucrative, multi-year deal. In that case, Duren could end up making less than what he could have if he had accepted Detroit’s offer this summer.

This all depends on what the Pistons are actually offering him. According to The Athletic’s survey among front office decision-makers, it seems like a deal worth $30 to $35 million per year is seen as fair value for Duren. If the Pistons are actually offering him around that as well, taking the qualifying offer wouldn’t be too crazy of a move for Duren.

Let’s say the Pistons are offering him $32 million per year as part of a five-year, $160 million contract. Let’s say Duren ends up betting on himself and plays on a one-year, $9.6 million contract. To make more than what he would have made if he had taken Detroit’s offer this summer, Duren only has to land a four-year, $150.4 million contract next summer. That is less than $38 million per year and far below the 25% max.

If Duren doesn’t suffer an injury next season and maintains a reasonable level of play, there will be many teams willing to give him way above that $38 million per year salary. Even if he just lands the four-year, $177 million deal next offseason, which is the max he could get from another team this summer, he still ends up making almost $27 million more over five years in this scenario.

This week, NBA insider Marc Stein reported that Duren “has been weighing the unappealing prospect of playing out the 2026-27 season on a qualifying offer.” It is obviously not an easy decision, but if the Pistons are actually not going over $35 million per year in their offers, the decision could get a little easier for Duren.

Despite his playoff struggles, Duren was extremely dominant in the regular season and is only 22 years old. He has established a level of play in a premium position, which will generate interest around the league. It wouldn’t be as crazy a decision as some think if he ends up betting on himself unless the Pistons significantly increase their offer.

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