Many are still struggling to adapt to the NBA’s new draft lottery system, but not the Celtics. Now that every pick will be drawn and the odds are as flat as they are, the name of the game is just getting into the mix. Future draft picks for teams that are unlikely to make the playoffs are more valuable than ever and will be hoarded like gold going forward.
The days of seeing star trades with teams sending out four first-round picks and endless swaps are over. Nowadays, the key is targeting premium assets that could turn into top picks fairly easily, and that’s exactly what the Celtics did in their Jaylen Brown trade.
The return obviously didn’t leap off the page, and I think most fans (and even NBA media people) were expecting a package of old, looking something like four picks plus more. In canvassing the league, the Celtics clearly realized that wasn’t happening, and if it was, those picks weren’t going to be particularly valuable.
2028 Clippers pick and 2031 Sixers pick are premium assets
We don’t necessarily know what offers the team considered, but the key to the one they settled on from Philadelphia is that the picks are extremely promising. The Clippers have an incredibly uphill battle ahead of them, and they seem destined for the lottery for the next few seasons, so having control of their pick in 2028 is huge.
This lottery system may not even exist by 2031, but the Sixers team will look completely different by then, so gaining control of their ‘31 first is also great business. Could Boston have loaded up with a trade package that offered more picks? Perhaps. But would they have been better picks? That seems doubtful.
If teams are offering three or four picks, that team is either heavily protecting them or assuming that they’re going to be very good for the life of those picks. Would four future picks that fall in the 20s be better than two with a real chance of being in the top 10 and possibly even better? I say no. And the Celtics do as well.
Expect to see more Jaylen Brown-like trades in the future
I think this is just the new norm in the NBA, and teams are all learning and adjusting as we go. Surely, you’ve heard Brad Stevens mention ‘optionality’ hundreds of times by now, but there’s something to that, for sure. Things change in a hurry, and nobody wants to be tied down and end up on a sinking ship.
That could happen from being weighed down with bad contracts or a lack of draft picks, or possibly even both. Teams are going to be much more careful with their draft picks, the contracts they hand out, and the money they take back in trades. The Jaylen Brown trade was the biggest example we’ve seen so far, but it certainly won’t be the last.
Fans should get used to this and shouldn’t be surprised if the Celtics’ picks acquired for Brown end up being monster assets that help fuel another decade of success in Boston.
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