This journey through the wonderful world of The Statistical Doppelgänger Machine starts with some warnings.
Remain seated throughout the duration of this article. Keep your hands, feet, legs, and arms securely accounted for. For the protection of others, avoid flailing about or throwing objects, including — but not limited to — smartphones, laptops or other electronic devices. Do not attempt to read or listen to this article while exercising, driving, or operating heavy machinery. Use of safety gear such as a seat belt or lap bar are recommended. Do not read or listen while under the influence of drugs, alcohol or other substances.
Maybe keep those substances handy for after reading.
For those wondering what the heck this is all about, welcome to my statistical doppelgänger series, in which I run Wizards players through an algorithm connected to a player database. The algorithm calculates which player seasons (as measured across 14 categories) through NBA history are “most similar” to the reference player.
In the first article of this year’s series, we learned that Alex Sarr just might be the second coming of Kristaps Porzingis. Right down to the broken foot.
Anyway, today we’re looking at Wizards wing Bilal Coulibaly.
Through three seasons, Coulibaly has been somewhat enigmatic — long and hyper-athletic. At times, he’s defended well and exhibited athletic arrogance. At others he’s seemed timid and too ready to defer. Also, he’s gotten hurt a lot — sitting out 27.8% of the team’s game since he entered the league.
The range of possible outcomes for Bilal Coulibaly is massive. Getty Images
Entering his fourth season, Coulibaly is still just 22-years-old.
As I wrote in his production ekg article, what he can do remains more than a little unknown, even after three seasons. What he seems to do best (defend) seems to have had little impact on the team performance, which is a) ultimately what matters, and b) might be a function of less-than-committed teammates, a terrible defensive ecosystem, and a franchise that was trying to lose.
The offensive end is where he’s shown the least promise, though over his final 20 games played last season, he showed sustained aggression, reasonable efficiency, and an apparent ability to get by nearly anyone off the bounce nearly any time he wanted.
All that said, I was in no way prepared for what the doppelgänger machine says are Coulibaly’s closest comps (similar per possession production across 14 categories at a similar age).
To save you some typing in the comments:
Yes, I double-checked to make sure The Doppelgänger Machine was functioning correctly. Triple-checked, if I’m being nitpicky.I warned you.James Harden | 2010-11 | Oklahoma City Thunder | Age: 21 — Yes, this is THE James Harden. The Beard. The 8x All-NBA selection, the NBA MVP, the 3x scoring champ, the 2x assists leader. This was Harden in his second season with OKC — he’d win 6th Man of the Year the following season. In this comp season, Harden shot better and notched higher efficiency than Coulibaly did. Amazingly, Coulibaly’s usage was slightly higher (19.5% to 18.9%) and their stats on a per possession basis were remarkably similar. If someone had asked me to list players Coulibaly was like, I probably would have named dozens (if not hundreds) before I got to Harden. But don’t worry, The Machine is going to get weirder.Aaron Gordon | 2016-17 | Orlando Magic | Age: 21 — I promised weird(er), but you’ll have to wait a little longer for that. Gordon is closer to what I would have expected. This was back when Orlando was trying to make him into a wing because they were one of those teams through the years that always seemed to think how great it would be to play a freak athlete power forward type on the perimeter. I can’t think of too many such attempts of this sort were successful. Gordon’s gone on to have a good career, which included helping Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets win a championship.Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 2018-19 | Los Angeles Clippers | Age: 20 — That’s 2x NBA MVP and NBA champion Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. I mean, I watched Coulibaly for three seasons and saw an enigmatic wing with offensive deficiencies. I fed The Machine numbers, and it sees a future all-time great. This was SGA’s rookie season. He then got dealt to OKC in the Kawhi Leonard/Paul George transaction. And then…he kinda languished in the good-to-maybe-very-good range for another three seasons before erupting into what we’ve seen the past four years. That three-year semi-wilderness stretch included missing games by the dozens as the Thunder tanked.Hedo Turkoglu | 2001-02 | Sacramento Kings | Age: 22 — Another comp I would not have come up with my eyeballs and memory. The multi-talented forward was probably not as impactful as my Stan Van Gundy-aided recollections would suggest, but he was a good player for a long time.Omri Casspi | 2009-10 | Sacramento Kings | Age 21 — Another international player, which is kinda interesting. Casspi played 10 seasons and never cracked average in my PPA metric. This was his rookie season, and like each of the player’s on this list (including Coulibaly), his offensive usage rate was in the 18-20% range (SGA was highest at 19.9%), and his statistical production in the other categories was in that “about the same” range.
One of the fascinating things about this annual exercise is the different directions young players can go from a similar start. Coulibaly’s comps range from guys who had similar production patterns early in their career and then went in wildly divergent directions. Which way will Coulibaly go?
Moving into the “honorable mention” section, the player types start feeling more like what I expected before I order The Machine to run:
Tim Thomas — age 23 with the Milwaukee Bucks — talented forward who never became as good as expectedP.J. Washington — age 21 with the Charlotte HornetsMartell Webster — age 21Peyton Watson (last season)John Williams — yes, the Bullets’ John Williams (before the knee injury and weight gain)Troy Brown Jr. — age 20 — the not bad season (PPA: 96)
Then seasons from other guys who make sense: Devin Vassell, Jerami Grant, Jaylen Brown (age 21), Jae Crowder, Will Barton, Jalen Suggs, Paul George (age 21).
The Doppelgänger Machine in this case largely reinforced what I wrote about Coulibaly back in May. But maybe the point is that with young players, it’s hard to tell what they’re going to become. The range of possibilities is vast.
If Coulibaly does the kind of psychotic work that Harden and SGA did on their bodies and games, he probably has the physical tools to reach elite status.
If he does “hard-working NBA player” work — which is to say borderline psychotic — maybe he’s a high-level role player like Gordon or Washington.
If he does “normal NBA player” work — which would provide work-life balance and probably $150 million in career earnings over a 10-12-year career — maybe he’s an 8th or 9th man type like Casspi.
Next through The Statistical Doppelgänger Machine: Kyshawn George. I promise it won’t be so weird.