Aug. 24, 2026, 11:28 a.m. CT
In a poll of its NBA insiders, ESPN’s summer forecast series projects the Houston Rockets to finish in a tie for third place in the 2026-27 Western Conference standings.
Both the Rockets and Nuggets are projected at 51-31, trailing only the San Antonio Spurs (62-20) and Oklahoma City Thunder (60-22).
For analysis, ESPN’s Michael C. Wright writes:
The West goes through either Oklahoma City or San Antonio, but don’t count out Houston. The Rockets expect to take another step in Year 2 with Kevin Durant, bolstered by the return of guard Fred VanVleet and continued improvements from Amen Thompson and Reed Sheppard.
The Rockets finished at 52-30 in each of the past two regular seasons. Last year, led by the All-Star duo of Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun, Houston went 52-30 despite suffering significant long-term injury losses in the form of VanVleet and Steven Adams.
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This season, both VanVleet and Adams are expected to be healthy from the start of training camp. The offseason signing of veteran guard Marcus Smart should also fortify the team’s depth.
So, at first glance, expecting fewer wins than last season might sound like a stretch. Then again, it’s possible the league could have significantly more parity in 2026-27 due to its recent draft lottery reform, which should reduce the incentives for non-playoff teams to lose games.
With that in mind, it’s at least possible that the Rockets could be a “better team” and it not show up in the win-loss record — at least relative to previous seasons.
ESPN’s complete summer forecast analysis can be read here. Houston’s projected 51-31 record is tied for fifth-best in the NBA, trailing only the aforementioned Spurs and Thunder from the West and the Pistons and defending champion Knicks (both 53-29) from the East.
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