The Charlotte Hornets face a difficult conundrum with Brandon Miller. After trading LaMelo Ball, they are clearly going all in on both him and Kon Knueppel. With Miller hitting restricted free agency next summer, an extension seems to be in the works.

The last time the Hornets had a rookie like this up for an extension, it was a fairly easy decision to sign Ball to the max. He was an All-Star and a clear lead player. So far, Miller’s only been second fiddle, and he hasn’t made an All-Star team.

Where does that leave him and the Hornets? Miller probably is a max-level player, but he hasn’t been so far. The Hornets also can’t afford to let this situation go sour, so it’s not ideal to wait around and let him set his value, either.

Restricted free agency would give the Hornets all the leverage in the world (for reference, see Jalen Duren’s situation right now), but it would come at a great cost.

These are all valid points, and they’re backed by NBA analyst Eric Pincus with Bleacher Report. He took a stab at projecting Miller’s extension, and he rightly believes it’s a little more complicated than it seems.

“Where does that leave Miller, who returned from injury that sidelined him for most of 2024-25 to play 65 games, averaging 20.2 points a night while shooting 38.3 percent from three on a heavy volume (8.2 attempts per game)?” Pincus asked, referencing the offseason roster shuffle.

Obviously, as Pincus wrote, the best-case scenario is a number below the max that the two sides are comfortable with. The Hornets have until the day before the regular season begins to get something done, but so far, no dice.

And if nothing gets done, they risk going to restricted free agency, which could totally sour the relationship with Miller. How can they say he’s their guy if they aren’t willing to extend him? How can he be the face of the franchise if he actually hits free agency?

Charlotte Hornets forward Brandon Miller (24) shoots the ball against the Miami Heat

Charlotte Hornets forward Brandon Miller (24) shoots the ball against the Miami Heat | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

“Finding a compromise near the $200 million line over five years is the way to go,” Pincus concluded. “Prediction: Miller and the Hornets reach an extension deal before the deadline, starting near $33 million for $191 million over five years.”

This would be ideal. The max is closer to $250 million, which is why the Hornets might be interested in getting something done now. There are risks, but Miller has shown enough so far to be worth roughly $200 million, so getting in under that figure would be fantastic.

This is the most pressing issue the Hornets are facing now, and it’s unfortunately not as simple as just paying the player. There are complex layers that make landing on a number and getting Miller to agree very challenging.

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