Start with the number that tells you everything about last season: 12th in the East, 23rd in offensive rating, 22nd in defensive rating, and second in the league in pace. The Bulls ran faster than everyone and arrived nowhere.
Then look at the two months that changed the franchise. Ayo Dosunmu was moved to Minnesota for Rob Dillingham, Leonard Miller and four second-rounders. Coby White and Mike Conley were sent to Charlotte for Ousmane Dieng, Collin Sexton and three more seconds. Jaden Ivey was waived. By April 6 the front office that built all of that was gone, and on April 21 Donovan followed it out the door. The Bulls news cycle since has been almost entirely about who plays, not who wins.
Before you touch a futures ticket on this roster, compare the number across RG.org’s online sportsbooks hub, because the Bulls are priced identically at the top of the board and very differently underneath it.
Bryson Graham Has Said the Quiet Part Out Loud
The new executive vice president of basketball operations was hired May 4, and his first public act was to lower the bar in a way Chicago’s previous regime never would.
“We just want to see internal growth from our young guys and even from our veteran players,” Graham told reporters, and team sources have been explicit that there is no pressure to chase a play-in spot this season. For a franchise that last made the playoffs in 2022 and spent the intervening years signing 30-year-olds to avoid the lottery, that is a philosophical reversal, not a tweak.
The hire that followed fits the brief. Splitter was introduced June 17 after a single season in Portland that exceeded expectations, and he arrives with the sort of job security first-choice coaches get and interim ones do not. He has been asked to develop, not to win 40 games, and the roster he inherited makes that division of labour very clear.
BET NBA FUTURES AT FANDUELCaleb Wilson Is the Whole Plan
Chicago took the 6-foot-10 North Carolina forward fourth overall in June, one pick after Memphis selected Cameron Boozer, and then watched him do something no rookie had done before.
Wilson scored 35 points in his Summer League debut, widely regarded as the highest-scoring first game in the event’s history, on 7-of-11 shooting from three, with five rebounds, three blocks and two steals. The three-point line is the part worth pausing on: he made seven in one night in Las Vegas after never making more than one in any single game at UNC. That is either a small-sample fluke or evidence that a mechanical change took, and the Bulls have a full season to find out which.
The scouting consensus is that Wilson was the best player outside the top three of his class, a long, athletic two-way forward with genuine passing feel whose jumper remains the open question. The concern is on the other end. He can rely on his tools rather than his positioning, which leaves him in poor spots to defend, and building better habits is the developmental target for year one. The NBA’s own draft profile leans on the same tension: elite physical gifts, unfinished discipline.
Chicago also took Dailyn Swain at No. 15, a 6-foot-8 Texas wing who rose through the pre-draft process on slashing and ball-handling. Swain was used as an on-ball facilitator in Summer League and showed why scouts flagged his indecision: he over-dribbles and delays reads until the clock forces a bad one. He also missed the final Summer League game with right wrist soreness, though he is expected to be fine for camp.
The Veterans Who Keep This From Being a Tank
Powell is the signing that complicates the tanking narrative. The Bulls gave the 33-year-old two years and $45 million with a team option on the second season, and he arrives from Miami as a first-time All-Star who averaged 21.7 points, 3.5 rebounds and 2.5 assists last season on career shooting splits of 47.1% from the field, 39.6% from three and 82.4% from the line, per NBA.com.
That contract structure matters more than the player. A one-year commitment with a cheap option is a trade chip built for February, and if Chicago is where the standings say it will be, Powell will be the most discussed veteran on the deadline board.
Nic Claxton arrived from Brooklyn on July 10 to start at center, a proven rim protector on a roster that badly lacked one, pushing Jalen Smith to a bench role despite a 37.3% three-point season. Zach Collins was re-signed on a two-year, $17 million deal after a strong ten-game cameo in which he shot 57.8% from the floor.
Then there is Josh Giddey, the most interesting case on the roster. He averaged 17.0 points, 8.3 rebounds and 9.1 assists in 54 games last season and lifted his three-point percentage to 36.4%, per Basketball-Reference, on a four-year, $100 million extension signed by a front office that no longer exists. Giddey told ClutchPoints he believes Chicago has “more than enough to be competitive in this league and be a playoff team.” His employers have said, politely, the opposite.
Matas Buzelis played 77 games and averaged 16.3 points and 5.8 rebounds on 34.9% from three. With Wilson beside him, the Bulls now have two athletic forwards who can protect the rim and run, which is the one thing about this team the projections might be underrating.
Chicago Bulls Championship Odds
The title market is unanimous. The awards market is where the argument lives.
MarketOddsSportsbookImplied ProbabilityNBA Champion 2026-27+50000Caesars0.20%NBA Champion 2026-27+50000BetRivers0.20%NBA Finals Runner-Up+35000FanDuel0.28%Rookie of the Year – Caleb Wilson+400BetRivers20.00%MVP – Caleb Wilson+50000Caesars0.20%MVP – Josh Giddey+75000Caesars0.13%
Odds current as of Monday, Aug. 31. Futures move quickly once camps open, so check the live number on the best betting apps before you commit.
At +50000 across two books, Chicago sits alongside the Clippers and Pelicans in the tier just above the Bucks, Grizzlies, Nets and Kings. There is no line-shopping edge on the outright. The Bulls are priced where they belong, and neither book is inviting you to disagree.
The Rookie of the Year price is a different matter. BetRivers has Wilson at +400 behind Boozer and Darryn Peterson at +300 and level with AJ Dybantsa. ESPN’s summer panel picked Boozer, Peterson and Dybantsa in that order and noted the margins were slim, which is a polite way of saying nobody on the panel picked the player who outscored all of them in Las Vegas. Wilson is the only one of the four who will walk into a starting role on a team with no incentive whatsoever to limit his minutes.
The Conference Above Them Got Meaner
Any case for Chicago sneaking toward the play-in has to survive the East it plays in.
New York is the defending champion. Philadelphia added Jaylen Brown and LeBron James. Miami traded for Giannis Antetokounmpo. Detroit led the conference in wins last year and Cleveland reached the conference finals. Toronto has Kawhi Leonard. That is six teams before you reach Orlando, Indiana or Atlanta, and the Bulls finished 12th behind most of them with a better roster than this one on paper.
The counterargument is that last season’s roster was worse than its parts. Giddey played 54 games, White 29, Vucevic 48. Chicago never had its intended starting five for any length of time, and a full year of Giddey running an offense built around Powell’s shooting and two athletic forwards in transition is not a 25-win team. The Fansided case that the Bulls are the league’s surprise candidate rests on exactly that: a pass-first point guard, a legitimate 20-point scorer and three bigs who can defend. The floor is the mid-30s. The ceiling, if the backcourt clicks, is the low 40s.
The sportsbooks disagree. FanDuel posted a win total of 29.5, with early industry projections landing in the 27-28 range. Every number says this is a bottom-five team, and every one was set before anyone had seen Splitter’s rotation.
SHOP NBA ODDS AT BETRIVERSCircle These DatesOct. 21 at Toronto — the opener, and the first look at Wilson against a Raptors side with a Finals-tier price.Oct. 24 vs. Washington — the home opener and the second night of the season’s first back-to-back, with Wilson facing No. 1 pick Dybantsa in the game the lottery order was supposed to prevent.Nov. 8 vs. Philadelphia — LeBron James and Jaylen Brown at the United Center. This will sell out before Chicago plays a home game that matters.Dec. 1 vs. New York — the Bulls’ first national television appearance of the season, and one of only three all year. Six teams share that number; none of them were expected to be good.Dec. 21 at Miami — Powell’s return to the team that let him leave, and the first of two meetings inside a week.Feb. 14 at Portland — Splitter’s first trip back to the building that let him walk.Mar. 13 vs. Memphis — Wilson against Boozer, a rematch of the Summer League game that started the Rookie of the Year argument.
Chicago plays six of its first eight on the road, has 15 back-to-backs, tied for second-most in the league, and finishes Apr. 11 at New Orleans.
Best Bets and Predicted Finish
The honest read is that the Bulls are a bad basketball team with one genuinely interesting bet attached to it.
Best Bet: Caleb Wilson to win Rookie of the Year (+400 at BetRivers). Boozer and Peterson are shorter because they were drafted higher, not because their situations are better. Wilson starts from opening night, plays for a coach whose sole mandate is developing him, and has already shown a jumper nobody knew he had. Twenty percent implied on the rookie with the clearest path to 30 minutes a night is a fair price with upside.
Value play: Bulls regular season wins — the over, at FanDuel’s 29.5. Chicago won 31 games with a broken roster and a lame-duck coach. Powell, Claxton and a healthy Giddey are an upgrade on what Donovan had in March, and the league’s revised lottery rules quietly reward finishing fourth-worst rather than first-worst. The under is the safe call. The over is the one with an argument.
Longshot: Chicago to win the NBA title (+50000 at Caesars or BetRivers) — token stake only, and there is nothing to choose between the two prices.
Fade: Chicago in October. Toronto, Washington on a back-to-back, New York and Philadelphia inside the first three weeks with a rookie starter and a new coach. Let the market form an opinion, then look for a live number in November once the rotation has settled.
Predicted finish: 13th in the Eastern Conference at 30-52, out of the play-in by the All-Star break, with Powell traded in February and a top-six pick to pair with Wilson. That is the plan working, whatever Giddey says about the playoffs.
Before you place a futures ticket that will not settle until June, review the full slate of US sportsbooks, compare current sportsbook promos, and if you are wagering from the Bulls’ home market, check the rules for Illinois sports betting first. Always bet within your limits.