As a new NBA season inches closer, one big question still looms large. After a breakout campaign that included a maiden All-Star appearance, Pistons 22-year-old big man Jalen Duren remains a restricted free agent.

Ever since Cade Cunningham developed into a true superstar, Detroit had a mission to find the Robin to his Batman. Instead of a splashy trade to get Cunningham a No. 2, Detroit’s front office prioritized flexibility and internal development.

That bet paid off last season as Duren looked like a true second option and one of the most dominant offensive centers in the NBA. Over the regular season, Duren averaged a 19-point double-double, which led to third team All-NBA honors. In most cases, teams commit to that player and don’t think twice about it, even in the modern NBA world of aprons and subsequent roster-building limitations.

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The problem? Duren fell off a cliff in the playoffs. After he played a large role in the Pistons’ 60-win season as they clinched the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, Duren averaged just 10.2 points per game over the postseason. That was way down from his regular-season average of 19.5 points per night.

Beyond the box score, he was visibly absent and turned the ball over entirely too much in the playoffs as the top-seeded Pistons desperately needed scoring from anyone other than Cunningham. Detroit fell behind 3–1 to the No. 8 seed Magic in the first round, then stormed back to eliminate Orlando in seven games. The second round brought another seven-game series, where the gas fully ran out for the Pistons as they were stomped by the Cavaliers and eliminated on their home floor.

Aside from Cunningham, Tobias Harris was crucial in getting the Pistons one win away from the Eastern Conference finals after the team nearly suffered a massive upset in the opening round. If Duren played up to his potential in the playoffs, however, the Pistons probably would’ve rolled into the conference finals for a shot to knock off the eventual champion Knicks.

The timing for Duren’s playoff slump was particularly poor as he entered the offseason as a restricted free agent. On one hand, a 22-year-old All-Star center who complements a team’s primary superstar is well worth a significant new contract. On the other hand, does the franchise really want to tie up that much money and limit itself moving forward for a player who doesn’t shoot, is an average defender and is a liability to drop off that significantly when it matters most?

That predicament has led to an impasse in contract negotiations as Duren remains without a new deal a month and some change ahead of the new season.

Where do contract discussions between the Pistons and Jalen Duren stand?J.B. Bickerstaff and Jalen Dure

J.B. Bickerstaff led the Pistons to 60 wins with Jalen Duren down low | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

At this point, it seems like a certainty that Duren will be on the Pistons’ roster next season. Early in the offseason, there were rumors that the Kings and the Lakers were interested in acquiring him through a sign-and-trade. Los Angeles then acquired former Jazz big man Walker Kessler, which took Duren off the table. The Kings still could be a suitor, but there’s an issue. The Pistons hold all the leverage here.

Since Duren is a restricted free agent, Detroit has the right to match any offer sheet he would sign with an opposing team. At this point in the offseason, no team has significant enough cap space to give him that. That leaves a sign-and-trade as the only option that would land Duren elsewhere next season. The Pistons would have to agree to that, and they have indicated a strong reluctance to do so.

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With the All-Star center headed for a return to Detroit, the only options are a new contract or playing next season on a $9.6 million qualifying offer, which would make him an unrestricted free agent next summer. The latter option is a risk for both the team and the player as Duren risks cashing in on his All-Star season while the Pistons could be in danger of letting him walk for nothing.

If Duren accepts the qualifying offer, Detroit should seriously consider trading him to avoid that possibility.

Per ESPN’s Tim MacMahon, the Pistons are offering a five-year deal that would pay Duren in the range of $35 million annually, while Duren and his camp want an average salary above $40 million per season. While the difference seems small on the surface, that’s at least $25 million over the course of the contract, which could limit other moves the franchise may want to make in the future with large commitments to Duren and Cunningham.

Ausar Thompson is eligible for an extension, too, and Detroit should be inclined to get him locked down as soon as possible as the team’s defensive anchor. With only so much money to go around, Detroit’s front office is smart to keep it tight around the margins, especially with the concerns that come with Duren.

So, what’s the most likely outcome?Jalen Duren and Cade Cunningham

Jalen Duren and Cade Cunningham each received All-NBA honors last season | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Pistons and Duren should both be motivated to get a long-term deal done ahead of the new season, no matter how long it drags along. Sports Illustrated’s Liam McKeone and Tom Dierberger recently predicted outcomes for the top remaining free agents. For Duren, they predicted that he will sign a four-year, $140 million contract to remain with the Pistons. That’s $35 million annually, directly in line with the Pistons’ reported number.

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Since Duren earned an All-NBA nod, he’s eligible to sign up to a five-year, $287 million maximum contract ($57.4 million per year). That’s well off from what Duren and his team are reportedly expecting at this point. That said, this could be the biggest contract he ever gets, which makes it reasonable to hold out for the most value he can.

A standoff of this magnitude between a team and one of its star players could have long-term side effects. However, we haven’t heard of any significant rift between Duren and the Pistons. Hard conversations were certainly had, but Detroit’s reluctance to entertain any trade packages involving Duren should say something about how the franchise sees its young center. Plus, playing alongside an elite guard like Cunningham has worked for Duren and is in his best interest moving forward.

In the end, the Pistons and Duren should meet somewhere between $35 million and $40 million and move forward. The outcome depends on how stubborn each side will be, though, in what’s a critical decision for a franchise that looks like a real player in the East for years to come.

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