Is an MVP season loading for Jayson Tatum?
For Day 2 of our Ramp to Camp series, we asked our crack panel to plot Tatum’s pathway to winning the league’s Most Valuable Player award during the 2026-27 season.
At first blush you might think it’s overzealous to put such lofty expectations on a player that’s still only 16 months removed from Achilles surgery. But a Tatum return to form, set against the backdrop of an expedited recovery, as well as Boston’s shocking offseason roster changes, might be exactly the storyline that could set Tatum apart in a field full of high-level talent.
Basically, here’s our Tatum-for-MVP checklist:
Return to pre-injury form while playing 65-plus games
Help the Celtics outkick expectations in the aftermath of the Jaylen Brown trade
Produce glitzy on/off splits that accentuate Tatum’s impact
Is that enough to fend off a field that could include — but will not be limited to — multi-time MVP winners like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokic, and even Giannis Antetokounmpo as he relocates to Miami? Victor Wembanyama might soon have a stranglehold on the Michael Jordan trophy based on his two-way impact.
But Tatum can absolutely crowbar his way into the conversation. Remember, he finished fourth in MVP voting before the Achilles rupture, and was top six in voting in all four seasons preceding the injury with another fourth-place finish in 2023.
Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY SportsWendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
Jayson Tatum is no stranger to top-six MVP finishes, but can he crack the top two for the first time?
Picture this: Tatum produces a career-best season, maybe even averaging 30-plus points per game like he did in that 2022-23 campaign. His rebounding was elite even in the infancy of his return last season, and it’s not outrageous to think he can average 10-plus rebounds per game like he did in 16 regular-season appearances last year.
With the departure of Brown following his own MVP-caliber season, it’s on Tatum to continue to be an elite playmaker, especially if Boston is going to maintain the glitzy offensive output we’ve seen over the past half decade. That he averaged 6.8 assists per game in Boston’s first-round playoff series is encouraging about what comes next.
Voters are human; they cannot deny a good storyline. If Tatum goes back into Superman mode and puts up eye-catching numbers while still working his way back from the injury that he initially worried might impact the trajectory of his career, it’s going to generate plenty of chatter.
Even if Tatum is simply in the conversation, that’s an excellent long-term sign for the Celtics. Tatum back near the peak of his powers gives the Celtics a puncher’s chance even in a beefed up East. Maybe the even more intriguing aspect is Boston plotting potential roster alterations next summer, when pesky repeater penalties should be in the rearview and the team can more freely spend to add impact talent around him.
One thing is certain: Tatum will fully occupy the spotlight this season after Brown’s departure. His usage rate will climb and, if Tatum’s shooting splits restore their efficiency, his stat line could jump off the page this season.
Here’s what our panel thinks about Tatum’s path to MVP:
Nick Goss: Producer, Multi-Platform Content
Tatum will probably need to average close to a triple-double, or at least 30-plus points and 10-plus rebounds per game. Unfortunately for Tatum, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Nikola Jokic will probably win if healthy.
Michael Hurley: Producer, Multi-Platform Content
In a lot of ways, not having to share the ball with Jaylen Brown should naturally push Tatum down an MVP path. I wouldn’t expect him to be able to maintain his 10 rebounds per game from last season, but as long as he maintains his career average there and keeps distributing the ball the way he did after returning to the floor last season, it would almost be difficult for him to not be a top-5 MVP candidate at worst.
Justin Leger: Producer, Multi-Platform Content
To be in the MVP conversation, Tatum must maintain his scoring efficiency with what’s certain to be a higher usage rate without Brown. He’ll likely have to score 30+ points per game while continuing to stand out as a playmaker. He averaged 6.0 assists per game when he placed fourth in MVP voting in 2025, and he’ll probably have to eclipse that mark to earn consideration for the award next May.
Jason Levine: Executive Producer, Content Integrations
Tatum is obviously one of the best scorers on the planet, but it’s going to be all of the other stuff that gets him into the MVP conversation — being a playmaker, rebounding at the high rate he’s capable of, letting the game come to him, being a leader/force on the defensive end.
Josh Canu: Editor
Follow Jaylen Brown’s model. Tatum already is a high rebound and assist player, so that already gives him a leg up in any MVP race. But to get his name at the top of the list with players like Shai and Jokic, he needs to put up consistent scoring numbers. This means less settling for lower-percentage jumpers or 3s when there are opportunities to attack the basket. Seeking higher-percentage shots and getting to the free throw line is the easiest way to boost his numbers and provide the team with a more efficient offense.
Adam Hart: Executive Producer, Content Strategy
No. 1 seed in the East and averaging close to 30 points with triple-double numbers will thrust Tatum in the MVP conversation. With Jokic and SGA in the league, that becomes the bar. And — while we don’t wish ill on any player — Wembanyama not meeting the games-played threshold would help, too.