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There were too many burning questions surrounding the 2026-27 Toronto Raptors to answer in one go, so just ahead of media day and training camp, we’re answering the rest.
We covered health, coaching, breakout players and more last time. Let’s get into what’s left:
How good can Scottie Barnes be?
That Barnes is still somehow largely underrated amongst basketball observers speaks largely to how much sway a devastating scoring package and pretty jump shot still hold in the minds of so many. The goal of basketball is of course to score more points than your opponent, but getting buckets isn’t everything. Barnes can score some points, but averaged his third-fewest in five seasons last year and has yet to get to 20 a game, yet, he was one of the best performers in the playoffs at either end of the floor and at times can dominate offensively.
What he does nightly though, is overwhelm on the defensive end. After Victor Wembanyama, Barnes had a case as the next-best defender in the entire NBA last season. He finished fifth in defensive player of the year voting (probably too low) and somehow slipped to the all-defensive second team, which still makes no sense at all months later. Barnes is also an elite play-maker and rebounder for his position and only turned 25 last month.
What will he look like alongside Kawhi Leonard as he edges into his prime? Barnes showed hints in dominating the Cleveland Cavaliers (24.1 points, 8.6 assists. 1.7 blocks, 51% shooting including 38% from three-point range) of what’s possible. He was easily the best player on the floor in a series that also featured Donovan Mitchell (three Top-7 MVP finishes), James Harden (an MVP win, two runner-up finishes plus one third place nod) and Evan Mobley (who finished just behind Barnes in the rookie of the year race after their first season and was defensive player of the year two seasons ago).
How big a gamble is the Kawhi extension?
The Raptors now owe Leonard just shy of $106 million over the next two seasons and gave him a player option for another $59.7 million in 2028-29 when Leonard will be 38 years old.
Considering all of the ailments Leonard has faced over the years, including missing an entire season with the Los Angeles Clippers and playing only nine games for San Antonio before initially being dealt to Toronto, plus all the wear and tear from 798 regular season games and another 146 in the playoffs, including three marathon-length runs to the Finals, there’s definitely an element of risk in both getting Leonard and in extending him.
That said, almost every team in the NBA would have done the same. Leonard is coming off a 65-game season where he finished seventh in MVP voting, made All-NBA second team for the second time in three years and the prior year averaged 25 points a game in a classic seven-game loss to Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and the mighty Denver Nuggets. He’s still about as good as it gets and Toronto managed his health exceptionally well the last time around.
It’s not like there were many better pathways for the Raptors. Brandon Ingram and Gradey Dick didn’t have much trade value. Yes they gave up some valuable draft picks, but Barnes is ready to really take off and Leonard puts the Raptors in contention.
How big an upgrade is Kawhi over Ingram?
Ingram had a strong year, earning an all-star selection and had many big moments offensively, while delivering more than expected defensively, but he’s even more injury prone than Leonard and is a far inferior player on both offence and defence. Ingram is an above average starter, though some advanced metrics strongly disagree. Leonard is an analytics darling who simply does everything better (Leonard had a 27.9 Player Efficiency Rating compared to Ingram’s 16.3, a 62.9% true shooting percentage to 57.3%, exactly double Ingram’s win shares (really about 2.5X considering the minutes played difference) and a value over replacement player of 5.3 compared to Ingram’s 1.7).
Stylistically, Leonard, like Ingram, will have to adjust to being asked by head coach Darko Rajakovic to hold the ball less than they are used to, but he should adjust. He will also take far more three-pointers than Ingram ever did and attacks the basket more frequently and more aggressively.
Defensively Toronto replaces a willing, but limited Ingram with someone who was once all-time great on that end and still strikes some fear into opponents looking to challenge him. All with Barnes, or Collin Murray-Boyles or others also swarming.
What’s their biggest weakness?
If a roster-wide history of missing too many games doesn’t count (it should), we’ll go with shooting. Again. In a league that revolves around shot-making (see the first note about Barnes), the Raptors, while improved in that area, still leave much to be desired.
Last year they were 21st in three-point accuracy, not great, but not horrific, but 26th in makes. They didn’t shoot enough threes. Leonard will help there and Barnes not having a rough shooting regular season (as he has had in each of the last two years following his breakout first all-star campaign when he shot 34%) would be massive. A lot will depend on the health of Immanuel Quickley (an excellent pull-up and overall three-point shooter), improvement from Murray-Boyles after lots of off-season work and whether Ja’Kobe Walter’s sizzling second half and 41% overall three-point accuracy carries over.
Right now the starting lineup is two good shooters, one complete non-shooter (Jakob Poeltl), an historically underwhelming three-point shooter in Barnes (though he’s shown those flashes of more) and RJ Barrett, roughly league average from three, but inconsistent (some years he shoots well above average, others less so).
Is RJ Barrett part of the future?
Speaking of the Canadian wing. Undoubtedly the question most fans seem to be wondering about the most is this one. He loves playing close to home for the franchise he grew up cheering for and brings things to the table the team can use. But Barrett also wants to be paid, is entering the last year of his contract and will be asked to do less offensively, especially in the games Leonard plays.
With Toronto’s future salary cap obligations pretty significant, and with Walter emerging (and needing to be paid down the line, along with Murray-Boyles, with Jamal Shead up first), can they afford to extend Barrett?
The other significant factor here is that the Raptors don’t have many ways to make another big trade work. GM Bobby Webster has said the obvious that this roster is not a finished product, but there aren’t a lot of contractual pieces available to make upgrades. Poeltl is a hard sell to other teams unless he proves his back issues are gone. Barrett has value as a player, as a large, but not anywhere close to max-level contract and because his deal is expiring, giving suitors options.
We’d be surprised to see Barrett a Raptor a year from now given all those reasons, but it would be sad to see him go if that happens.
@WolstatSun