I just want to put this out there right up front. Something about the way the Dallas Mavericks are handling Santi Aldama’s recovery from an undisclosed(?) injury is telling me we should be more patient than we think we must with the player and more skeptical than we usually are about anything the team says about his status as the season approaches.
Something smells awfully funny here. Even under the Masai Ujiri/Gina Miller administration (campaign slogan: “You can trust us this time. We promise.”), this team will find a way to remain somewhere on the spectrum between coy and disingenuous about injuries like these, and that “undisclosed” designation is our first clue.
What exactly is not being disclosed here? Everyone knows about the knee issues that limited Aldama to 43 games last season. Everyone knows about the arthroscopic stem cell shot procedure he underwent in March to try to relieve prolonged pain in that knee. Did Aldama injure something else after arriving in Dallas? Is the knee issue still nagging, six months after the procedure? Either way, the outlook is murky at best.
The Dallas Morning News reported recently that “it appears they’ll take the same [patient] approach with Aldama [as they are with Dereck Lively II’s recovery timeline].” He did not suit up for either of the two preseason games in Macao, China, and it seems less and less likely that Aldama will be ready to go when the regular season starts.
The Mavericks sent AJ Johnson, a top-20 protected 2030 first-round pick via Golden State, and two future second-round picks to Memphis for Aldama. The deal was folded into a six-team trade that became official on July 8.
Which brings us to the biggest question surrounding Aldama’s arrival in Dallas for the upcoming season. With such a vague recovery timeline in place, when can Aldama realistically be expected to be a meaningful contributor for the Mavericks, and what role does he fill when that time comes?
The question lurking behind the question is, did the Mavericks trade for someone destined to become the second broken seven-footer taking up a roster space, or is this actually going to work? The fact that so much is being kept under wraps does not portend well at this point. Again, we’re going on seven months with this knee issue at this point.
Aldama brings shooting and size, the ability to stretch the floor and be a weapon along the perimeter. He scored 14 points per game last year in the 43 games he managed before the knee issues flared up. He shot nearly 48% from the floor and 35% from 3-point range. He can be dangerous, but will it pan out in any sort of meaningful way for the Mavericks? It’s hard to say when the team won’r say anything about him.
The dream season for Aldama is only missing the first five games of the year, taking the next step offensively and getting more than seven rebounds per game this year. He played in a career-best 77 games in 2022-23, his second year in the league, so getting to 70 this year would be amazing. Forcing his way into the lineup for around 25 minutes a night would be ideal, too. Under those circumstances, Aldama would maximize his potential without being exposed as a potential liability against bigger, more physical frontcourts.
“Lineup versatility: He gives us a different dimension if we want to go with it,” first-year Mavericks head coach Dusty May said of Aldama. “An elite shooting lineup. But Santi’s not just a shooter. He can really close out. He’s learned to play against perimeter guys — shotmaking, driving, getting to the paint. That will be one of the many pieces we have to put together if we’re going to be really good.”
The worst case for Aldama is if the knee injury is something larger than the Mavericks have disclosed and it limits him from playing in half the games this season. He’s a role player on the rise, but only if he gets in enough games to make an impact. If he doesn’t, sure, that leaves more minutes for Morez Johnson Jr., but it makes the Mavericks’ second unit more one-dimensional. It limits the threat from beyond the arc, which is something this team drastically needs to be better at this season. Adding one or two shooters in Kyrie Irving and Sergio de Larrea is nice — much needed. But building a roster with shooting depth is really what the doctor ordered.
Can Aldama make himself an indispensable part of the Mavericks’ rotation? Can he continue the upward statistical trajectory his career arc has assumed through his first five years? Can he space the floor and be a part of the equation that keeps opposing defenses from sticking two defenders on Cooper Flagg? These are the things we want to see. He has the ability to be more than just “a guy.” But he’s also a guy who could easily get relegated to the role of “a guy” if things swing a certain way this season.
If he can inch closer to 40% from 3-point range and score at a rate similar to what he did across his 43 games last year with the Memphis Grizzlies, he’ll be a meaningful contributor. If not, he’ll make it easier for the team to avoid picking up his option next season.
Everything hinges on Aldama’s health, and it’s an uncomfortable place to be as the regular season approaches. Truly, any outcome is on the table for what is essentially a one-year rental with a team option for a second year. You can squint and see whatever you want with this relationship: a chance to step into a meaningful, much-needed role on a team with a chance to improve vastly in Flagg’s second year, or someone who needs two months to get right before settling into a diminished role on a new team.
Hope for the best, sure, but this team’s recent history has also taught fans to prepare for the worst.