Jon Metler
• Betting Analyst
5+ years betting experience
Updated:
Oct 22, 2026 , 04:14 PM ET
• 4 min read
The 76ers host the Cavaliers in regular season action, and betting analyst Jon Metler is backing Cleveland in his latest NBA moneyline picks.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. James Harden of the Cleveland Cavaliers and Shai-Gilgeous Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder.
LeBron James and the Philadelphia 76ers opened the season with a win over the New York Knicks, but I’m backing Cleveland to hand Philadelphia its first loss. The Cavaliers’ chemistry and continuity give them the edge and make them my top value play in Thursday’s NBA moneyline picks.
I’m also siding with Oklahoma City against Denver. Here are my latest NBA picks for Oct. 22.
NBA moneyline picks: October 22
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Expert NBA moneyline picks: October 22
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Philadelphia 76ers: 
Cavaliers
The Philadelphia 76ers opened the season by beating the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden on ring night, showing promise with their new starting five. However, I don’t expect a smooth upward trajectory, as this group still has plenty of chemistry to build and kinks to work out with so much star power on the floor.
Jarrett Allen is questionable for this matchup, but I don’t think his status is as impactful here as it might be against other opponents.
Philadelphia will look to play small in certain lineups and push the pace. That could limit Allen’s minutes, with Evan Mobley at center offering the Cleveland Cavaliers a better fit. The Cavaliers may also prefer Sam Merrill‘s shooting over deploying both bigs together.
At 44%, I’ll back Cleveland, as I price the Cavaliers closer to a 45% underdog against the 76ers. Cleveland’s ability to counter Philadelphia’s smaller lineups is central to my Cavaliers vs. 76ers predictions.
Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder: 
Thunder
We just saw what the Oklahoma City Thunder defense did to Victor Wembanyama, and now Nikola Jokic is next in line.
If the combination of Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein wasn’t already enough to frustrate Jokic, adding minutes from Aday Mara and Alex Caruso gives the Thunder even more options. They have the personnel and defensive versatility to pressure Jokic and disrupt the Denver Nuggets‘ offensive flow.
A 74% probability is steep against another Western Conference contender, but my projections still see value, pricing Oklahoma City closer to 77% favorites on Thursday. The Thunder’s ability to throw multiple defenders at Jokic is the deciding factor in my Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions.
Today’s NBA moneyline combo
Thursday’s moneyline combo is straightforward, with just two games on the slate. I like the setup with Cleveland as the underdog in the first leg.
If the Cavaliers deliver a green checkmark, we’ll have plenty of trading opportunities with the Thunder entering their game as 74% favorites. That gives us flexibility to manage the combo once Oklahoma City tips off.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, Jon naturally turned his focus to the NBA when he entered the sports betting world. With over 15 years of experience, he specializes in spreads, moneylines, and player props—always chasing value through sharp market analysis. A firm believer in analytics, Jon trusts the numbers to guide his bets. He monitors NBA betting markets 365 days a year and uses 10-plus sportsbooks to find the best prices. If there are NBA games on, Jon’s up early, caffeinated, and already placing his favorite bets.
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