If you’re waiting for the significant second- and third-line ripples from Yaxel Lendeborg’s five-game stampede start, no worries, they’re already happening.
The Warriors’ entire outlook has changed just based on Lendeborg’s arrival. All of the timelines are being sketched out again. Let’s just note that their options coming up in February and next offseason look a whole lot more interesting.
And if you’re noticing an extra gleam in Stephen Curry’s eyes these days, I think I can trace the source.
First, the raw individual stats, which won’t surprise anybody who’s watched Lendeborg crash and dash all over the court this season, including helping lift the Warriors to back-to-back road victories over Denver and Minnesota after their dismal 0-3 start:
So far, Lendeborg leads the Warriors in minutes, made shots, attempted shots, and has 46 rebounds, more than twice as many as the next Warrior (Draymond at 22).
Lendeborg is also second in points (to Stephen Curry), assists (to Draymond Green), blocked shots (to Draymond), free-throw makes and attempts (to Curry and Curry), three-point makes and attempts (to Curry and Curry), and almost all the efficiency advanced stats (also to Curry).
Basically, this is a bonus cut-and-paste of Jimmy Butler’s production levels with the Warriors before he tore his ACL last January, which is an astonishing but accurate thing to say about somebody who’d never played an NBA game before this month.
The Warriors struggled for years trying to find somebody to score in the non-Curry minutes. Then they got Butler. Then they suffered again after Butler was hurt.
Now they’ve got Lendeborg and that opens up so many things for Steve Kerr’s rotation.
There’s some negative stuff, too — Lendeborg also leads the Warriors with 18 turnovers specifically in a season when Kerr and Mike Dunleavy are stressing more efficient play; but it’s a side-door compliment that Kerr has to keep playing Lendeborg more than anybody else (33.6 minutes per game) even while he’s fumbling away the ball so often.
(OK, yes, Jonathan Kuminga got far fewer opportunities like this and was benched for less sloppiness than this, but he never did all the things that Lendeborg is already doing and he sure never shot it like Lendeborg already has.)
He’s that good. He’s that important. The beneficial stuff already outweighs the bad by a lot. And Lendeborg, at 24, will almost certainly get better, starting Friday at Chase Center in his much-anticipated rematch with Luka Doncic and the Lakers.
So yeah, Kerr and everybody else can live with the turnovers; it’s not so great when he’s on the floor with Curry and ending possessions with a wild dribble or pass; but when Lendeborg is leading the second unit and has to create on his own, well, it’s generally fine as long as he’s getting buckets in the other possessions.
“He tried to force a bunch of plays tonight; it’s his fifth game in the NBA,” Kerr told reporters after the Warriors’ victory over the Timberwolves on Wednesday. “So I’m really excited. I’m almost glad that this happened. He feels terrible in there. He’s not happy at all. And yet he had 26 points and [nine] boards in his fifth NBA game.
“It’s a great lesson for him; the simple play is the best one over and over and over. We have enough guys already on this team who are going to turn it over. So he needs to be solid. He needs to learn the value of just making the simple play.”
That’s the greater point — Lendeborg has been a sensation even while turning it over 3.6 times a game, losing focus on defense a time or two every night, and figuring out the NBA game on the fly while the Warriors have been without Butler and Moses Moody and contemplate life after Kristaps Porzingis.
Here are some other early repercussions of the Yaxel Experience:
Curry can feel good about his trust in the Warriors’ plan
The Warriors aren’t a great team. Maybe they won’t even avoid the play-in. But if Curry, Lendeborg, and Draymond stay reasonably healthy and then Butler and Moody come back strong, the Warriors won’t be close to awful. They might be more than decent.
And that’s essentially what Curry was betting on when he signed his two-year extension right before camp. He wasn’t pretending that the Warriors dynasty is stronger than ever. That run will never be duplicated and nobody understands that better than Curry.
No, he signed the deal through 2028-29 with the full faith and realistic sense that the Warriors had enough talent to compete while Butler was out and do some damage once he’s back. That they wouldn’t be horrible in this period. That he’d have help. And now he has help, with more arriving by January or so.
I know how dejected Warriors fans feel when Curry has a great game that still can’t prevent a victory. Imagine how he feels. Then think about how he feels when he lights up Minnesota for 44 points and Lendeborg helps finish off the victory.
Another note: Though many Warriors fans are perpetually enraged because Mike Dunleavy hasn’t traded every future first-round pick for immediate veteran help, if he’d traded this year’s first, the Warriors wouldn’t have Lendeborg now.
Big trades aren’t bad. The Butler trade, which cost a first-round pick, was great. But you can’t do it every year or you’ll get stuck and turn into the Phoenix Suns. Which is probably not the way to go.
The Warriors used the No. 11 pick in the NBA draft to select Lendeborg out of Michigan. | Source: David Zalubowski/Associated PressLendeborg leading the second unit moves everybody else into the right roles
What’s the Warriors’ best three-man rotational unit so far?
It’s been the heart of the second unit — Lendeborg, Brandon Podziemski, and Gui Santos (who was out Wednesday), who have played 31 minutes together and have a +68.9 net rating. And in the smaller sample size (11 minutes) when Brandon Williams has played with that threesome, the net rating goes up to +70.8.
First point: Including minutes with either Draymond or Al Horford at center, this is a pretty solid defensive unit, always the most important part of non-Curry lineups.
Second point: This Lendeborg-Podziemski-Santos group is really scoring right now, leading all of the Warriors’ highly played three-man units with a 143.9 offensive rating. In this configuration, Lendeborg usually initiates the action, and Podziemski and Santos move into the kind of cutting/passing roles they were born to play.
Last point: Nothing relaxes Curry and Kerr more than second-unit stints without scoring slumps and massive anxiety.
There won’t be panic to make a stop-gap trade
If the Warriors were still oh-for-the season and had kept on losing, there would’ve been some pressure to trade Porzingis’ contract and a future first-round pick for something, anything, that might stem the tide.
That probably wouldn’t have been wise — Myles Turner? Brook Lopez? — but I would’ve understood some of the pressure. And it might turn up again if the Warriors go on another losing jag.
But I don’t think that will happen because of this equation: Curry + Draymond + Lendeborg = no bottoming out and no immediate panic.
In the next few months, with this baseline, Dunleavy can calmly assess the market for Porzingis’ contract and pull the trigger only when there’s a good trade to make; it’s basically a $20 million expiring deal, though there’s $3 million guaranteed for next season.
Re-signing Porzingis last offseason was risky and hasn’t turned out to be a smart move, but it was also done partly to keep a middle-rung salary slot that could be very helpful to acquire an expensive player at the deadline.
Even if there’s no big trade, a playoff lineup with Curry, Draymond, Lendeborg, and Butler is very, very, very interesting
I’m not sure exactly how it’d work with all these alphas lined up together, but it’s a lot better than what the Warriors put out there at the end of last season.
Lendeborg makes it easier to play Draymond at center, which is his most valuable position
What does Kerr do whenever he faces a big moment? He plays Draymond at center, which is exactly what happened in Denver against Nikola Jokic earlier this week, when the Warriors were 0-3 and desperately needed a win.
Draymond outplayed Jokic; Lendeborg helped out with 12 rebounds, some help defense on Jokic, and a couple of swooping drives right into the big fella; and the Warriors won the game.
Draymond’s always been the Warriors’ best center. He would’ve been their best center this season even if Porzingis was around. But especially now, when Draymond’s minutes are down a bit, Kerr can maximize everything by keeping Draymond mostly at center, backed up by Horford, with Lendeborg around the rim, too.
Lendeborg’s primary weakness so far has been turnovers as he leads the Warriors with 18. | Source: Chris Coduto/Getty ImagesThe Warriors have a lot more paths to explore in February or next July
The Warriors had better not waste Yaxel Lendborg’s prime years! I kid, I kid. He’s 24. These are already his prime years. Still kidding!
Let’s just say that the Warriors’ future is a lot healthier knowing that Lendeborg will be a major piece for a long time. I don’t know if he’s going to be a star who can carry a team through playoff series, but I do know that he’s got a shot at it. I know that he’s everything the Warriors hoped that Kuminga, James Wiseman, and Moody would be.
And I know that if they find a good trade for Butler at the deadline, they would be comfortable with his replacement. Or if they let Butler and Draymond go in the offseason to clear cap space, they wouldn’t be leaving Curry all alone.
That changes the dimensions of this situation. That would be fairly attractive for a prime free agent. And all of that would have ripple effects, too, weeks and months after the Yaxel impact everybody’s already feeling.