The NBA regular season is a marathon.
After waiting all summer for real action, fans are understandably chomping at the bit to analyze and react to the first few games of a new campaign. For the Utah Jazz, a 1-4 start has created some interesting trends and takeaways, with the caveat being that the sample size is simply too small to accept anything as truly sustainable for all 82 games.
The injuries to Utah’s frontcourt (most notably the 6-to-8 week absence for Jaren Jackson Jr.) has forced Jazz head coach Will Hardy to adjust the rotation and experiment with different lineup combinations. Jaxson Hayes went down in Sunday’s game against the Los Angeles Lakers prior to Jackson Jr. and Lauri Markkanen exiting Tuesday’s game against the Memphis Grizzlies.
Markkanen is day-to-day with a right wrist sprain, which will create opportunities for some of Utah’s other wings and big men.
Meanwhile, Keyonte George has thrived out of the gates, averaging 24.4 points and 6.8 assists per game on 49.4-percent shooting from the field and 41.2 percent from deep. Ace Bailey has stood out on both ends of the floor, while rookie Darryn Peterson has shown flashes throughout his first five games in the league.
With several games in the books, it’s time to check in with Jazz Nation and answer some mailbag questions.
There will likely be several different starting lineups in the coming games and weeks, as Hayes and Markkanen work their way back from their injuries. In Wednesday’s game against the San Antonio Spurs, Hardy opted to start George, Peterson, Bailey, Josh Green, and Hayes.
After the overtime loss, Hardy emphasized that the decision to go with Green instead of Josh Okogie came down to Bailey’s success on the boards to start the season, with Okogie’s impact on the glass therefore being more useful on the second unit.
When Markkanen is back, he’ll take back the starting four spot, with Bailey, Peterson, and George continuing to make up the backcourt and wing. Both Green and Okogie will see more playing time as the Jazz rely on smaller lineups, while Mo Bamba has earned more opportunities down low.
Heading into the season, the Jazz were relying on overwhelming size at nearly every position. Although Utah’s rotation has downsized as a result of the injuries, there will still be quality size in a Bailey, Markkanen, and Hayes frontcourt as Utah awaits the returns of Jusuf Nurkić and Jackson Jr.
As for Bailey playing more at the four, the second-year wing certainly has the height and length to play the position, especially in today’s NBA. Against San Antonio, Bailey had 19 points, six rebounds, and one block, with his inside scoring (8-of-12 inside the arc) fueling his success. With his effective pursuit of the ball and length, the 20-year-old has flashed impressive rebounding to start the season, which the Jazz will certainly need to sustain as they navigate this stretch without several big men.
It’s no coincidence that in the first full game without Jackson Jr. and Markkanen, Bailey set a new season-high with 18 shot attempts against the Spurs. It wasn’t as much a result of Utah specifically running more offense for Bailey to get shots off, but more so because the second-year wing thrives with his ability to quickly rise up for jumpers.
Without Markkanen and Jackson Jr., Bailey became more of a target within the offense, receiving more hand-offs and opportunities to get to his mid-range spots. In late clock situations, the Jazz can rely on Bailey’s shot-making from the mid-range, while his long strides can help him get to comfort zones.
Even without the long ball falling (1-of-6), Bailey was able to score 19 points on 50-percent shooting from the field because of that aforementioned success inside the arc. One of the hallmark skills for Bailey coming out of Rutgers was his ability to take and make difficult shots. Although Utah is always looking to generate a clean look each time down the floor, having Bailey find a groove in a larger role over the coming weeks will certainly help the second-year wing continue to impact the game on both ends.
“He’s really carrying out his role,” Hardy said of Bailey. “He’s trying to contribute to winning on both sides of the ball. He has to be a cutter and crasher when the ball doesn’t find him. It’s dirty work and he’s embraced doing that over and over again.”
Anytime a former Defensive Player of the Year goes down, the team’s defense is going to suffer.
It’s hard to take anything away from the limited sample of the first three games of this season, which makes it difficult to quantify the impact that Jackson Jr.’s absence will have on Utah’s defense. However, the Jazz were hoping to use their overwhelming size in the frontcourt to help seal off the paint and make life difficult for teams driving towards the hoop.
Utah has limited opponent shot attempts from within four feet of the rim (just 24.9 percent through the first five games), but struggles to force turnovers and avoid fouls have hurt the team’s overall defense.
Throughout his career, Jackson Jr. has been a dynamic shot blocker and rim protector, which is a part of defense that Utah will have to get from others such as Hayes and Bailey. The Jazz will also likely be turning to smaller lineups with Jackson Jr. out of the lineup, which will create more emphasis on team rebounding in order to end defensive possessions.
The true impact of Jackson Jr.’s injury on Utah’s defense will be revealed as the sample size gets larger in the coming weeks.
If the main talking point about Utah’s start to the season has become the plethora of injuries, then discussing Bailey’s emergence has to be right up there in the conversation.
To begin his second season in the league, Bailey has become one of Utah’s most reliable players on both ends of the floor. The 20-year-old has impressed on the glass (eight rebounds per game, including 15 on the offensive end) and embraced the challenge of guarding the opponent’s best players on the perimeter.
Bailey has totaled eight blocks through the first five games of the season, while Utah’s defensive rebounding has improved significantly with him on the floor. As a result, the Jazz defense has been 9.9 points per 100 possessions better with Bailey on the court. Of course, it’s a small sample size that will shift dramatically each night until the number of games increases.
Meanwhile, George has also embraced the task of guarding on the perimeter. In Utah’s home opener against the Pelicans, George successfully shut down a drive from Dejounte Murray before taking a key charge against Zion Williamson.
In the small sample of five games, Utah’s defense has fared better with George on the floor, but Hardy continues to challenge the fourth-year guard and all of Utah’s backcourt members.
“You have to earn ‘not being hunted’,” Hardy said prior to Utah’s game against the Lakers. “Young guards get hunted in our league. He needs to stand tall and hold his space. I’m super proud of the charge late in the game (against New Orleans).”
On Peterson’s shot selection, the trend has indeed been to focus on getting off floaters and short jumpers inside the paint rather than getting all the way to the hoop. Through the first five games, just 12 percent of Peterson’s shots have come within four feet of the rim, while 49 percent have come from the “floater” zone (outside of four feet but within the free-throw line).
For starters, it is usually difficult to get all the way to the rim in the halfcourt. Teams typically design defensive schemes centered around preventing such shots, given that they are the most efficient available to an offense.
Utah’s offense also hasn’t generated a high volume of rim attempts in recent years. The Jazz have ranked 24th or lower in frequency of shots within four feet of the basket in each of the last four seasons, instead relying on a mix of 3-point attempts and shots from the short mid-range or floater zone.
One other aspect of Peterson’s beginning to the season is his focus on gaining comfort as a 3-point shooter within the flow of the offense. Against Memphis on Monday night, the 19-year-old went 3-of-5 from deep, showcasing his ability to hit difficult threes out of the pick-and-roll. The second pick in this year’s draft followed that effort up with a 3-of-8 shooting night from downtown against the Spurs, once again increasing the aggressiveness with his attempts.
Following Wednesday’s shootaround, Peterson mentioned his growing comfort level in getting those deep attempts up within the offense, emphasizing that adjusting to the speed and athleticism of the NBA game has forced him to work within smaller open spaces as a shooter.
This question came in prior to Monday’s game against Memphis, which saw Utah’s frontcourt take a hit as a result of the injuries to Jackson Jr. and Markkanen, which has stressed the rotation even further.
The beginning of every season involves plenty of experimentation when it comes to lineup combinations. When you add in Utah’s lack of availability down low, Hardy and the Jazz have had to rely on others to step up. As a result, very few lineups have generated much of a sample size to begin the season.
The five-man group with the most playing time is the prior starting five with George, Peterson, Bailey, Markkanen, and Jackson Jr., which had a -2.2 net rating across 89 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass. After that, the next most-used lineup has been on the floor for less than 30 possessions, making the sample too small to take anything away from the results.
Instead, looking at smaller lineup combinations can provide a glimpse into some potential trends. For example, the lineups with George, Peterson, and Bailey together on the floor have posted a plus-5.5 net rating across 167 possessions, a result driven by efficient offense (118 offensive rating).
There are many more games to come which will create more opportunities for lineups to gel and for Utah’s coaching staff to truly digest the results and make adjustments.