Updated:
Nov 11, 2026 , 02:20 PM ET
• 4 min read
Memphis has the better record, but Denver has a statistical edge that could make all the difference tonight.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Nikola Jokic, Cedric Coward, NBA
The Denver Nuggets visit the Memphis Grizzlies tonight as 4.5-point road favorites, but Memphis’ 7-3 record doesn’t tell the whole story.
My Nuggets vs. Grizzlies prediction and NBA picks focus on a free-throw mismatch that could make all the difference on Wednesday, Nov. 11.
TOP PICK
Nuggets vs Grizzlies prediction: Nuggets moneyline
Play this to 65% tonight.
The Denver Nuggets get to the line 26.4 times per game and make 80.3% of their free throws, for 21.2 points. The Memphis Grizzlies commit 24.1 fouls per game, the fourth-most in the NBA, and allow 24.4 free-throw attempts.
That’s a problem.
The Nuggets shoot 48.1% from the field and average 14.1 turnovers. Memphis averages only 6.2 steals, so don’t expect the Grizzlies to create many extra possessions off Denver turnovers.
Memphis has the rebounding edge, but Denver makes shots and can punish the Grizzlies at the line. I’m taking the Nuggets to win on the road tonight.
COVERS INTEL: Memphis has played the NBA’s 27th-toughest schedule, compared to Denver’s 10th. Four of the Grizzlies’ seven wins came against Utah and Sacramento, two teams sitting at 1-9. That 7-3 record looks a whole lot better than it really is.
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Nuggets vs Grizzlies combo
Nikola Jokic averages 9.1 assists per game and has reached double figures in five of nine contests this season. Memphis has struggled against passing centers, giving Jokic a chance to clear this number at plus-money.
Cedric Coward averages 8.4 rebounds and has collected at least seven in eight of nine games this season. Denver averages just 42.3 rebounds per game, giving Coward a favorable matchup to grab at least seven boards.
Nuggets vs Grizzlies combo
Nuggets moneyline
Nikola Jokic Over 9.5 assists
Cedric Coward Over 6.5 rebounds
Nuggets vs Grizzlies player props
Nuggets player prop: Nikola Jokic Over 9.5 assists
Jokic averages 9.1 assists per game and has reached double figures five times in nine outings this season. He’s also cleared 9.5 assists in three of his last four meetings with Memphis.
The Grizzlies have to respect Jamal Murray, who is averaging 25.8 points and has been red-hot from deep. When Memphis sends extra help toward Jokic, Murray and Denver’s other shooters can make them pay.
I’ll back Jokić to reach double-digit assists up to 50% tonight.
Grizzlies player prop: Cedric Coward Over 6.5 assists
Cedric Coward averages 8.4 rebounds in 28.4 minutes per game and has grabbed at least seven boards in eight of nine appearances. He pulled down nine against New Orleans, Indiana, and Oklahoma City before finishing with six at Toronto on Monday.
Denver averages 42.3 rebounds per game and surrendered 15 offensive boards to Houston in its last outing. Coward has consistently found ways to contribute on the glass, so I’ll take over 6.5 up to 65%.
Nuggets vs Grizzlies odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Spread: Nuggets -4.5 (48%) | Grizzlies +4.5 (52%)
Over/Under: Over 227.5 (56%) | Under 227.5 (44%)
Moneyline: Nuggets 60% | Grizzlies 40%
For the full slate of NBA matchups, check out our NBA odds board!
Nuggets vs Grizzlies trend
The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite. Find more NBA betting trends.
How to watch Nuggets vs Grizzlies
Location
FedExForum, Memphis, Tenn.
Date
Wednesday, Nov. 11, 2026
Tip off
8 p.m. ET
TV
Altitude Sports, WATN
Nuggets vs Grizzlies latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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