Northwestern has won two of its last three against Illinois basketball, and three of its last six.
No, I will not comment on whether or not those statistics are in any way cherry-picked, and how DARE you even ask me that question!
We can be very clear about something: the Illinois-Northwestern basketball series is a rivalry in the same sense that Iowa-Northwestern football is a rivalry. One side—it’s Northwestern, of course. it’s always Northwestern—is very, very, very bad, historically. One side—let’s call them “Corn Fuckers” for simplicity’s sake—is historically decent at the sport but likes to do stupid things like “retain a coach for thirty years past his sell-by date” or “hire John Groce”.
And, owing to those mistakes and a brand of moral terpitude that would make Anthony’s Weiner blanche—
Excuse me. I mean “Anthony Weiner blanche”—
Northwestern frequently beats the Corn Fuckers in these “rivalry” games, usually by some absurd accumulation of silliness that involves the Corn Fuckers shooting under 30% from three or notably mobile quarterback Ricky Stanzi being sent on a naked bootleg in his endzone and running right into Corey Wootton, Ender of Careers*.
See?** This article is fun for the whole family. Unless you’re a Corn Fucker.
* Normally I don’t celebrate people injuring people in a game of sport. But Wootton’s sack of Brett Favre on the frozen TCF Bank turf in 2010 should win him a retroactive goddamn Medal of Honor. Fuck Brett Favre with a $5 million volleyball stanchion.
** It turns out that video, in my search history, is auto-saved to start right at the Wootton sack. Fuck you, Iowa.
Upon Chris Collins’ hiring as Northwestern men’s basketball coach in 2013, the two teams have played 22 times in a series that Illinois leads, historically, 144-46 (a .758 win rate).
I would like to repeat that, because it arouses He was a high school quarterback: Illinois 144, Northwestern 46.
Over that 22-game span, Collins and the Wildcats are 7-15 (a .682 Illinois win rate).
BUT! It turns out, you can make money off this stupid basketball series, and not just betting on Illinois to win. Here’s how.
If the game is at Illinois, take the Illini to win…
Illinois is 9-0 at home against Northwestern, with an average margin of 12. Pick your favorite win—the 2015 shellacking, 86-60, perhaps; or maybe the 66-50 drubbing in 2017 was more your vintage. Want something with that really acidic bite? How about Illinois’s 96-66 laugher in January 2024. Thankfully the Illini went and did a lot better than Northwestern against UConn in the NCAA Tournament!
Anyway. If it’s at the State Farm Assembly Center, take the Illini to win…
…and to cover (unless the game is played in February).
Illinois has covered five of those nine times, failing to do so in January 2020, February 2021, February 2022, and February 2023.
Curiously, the Corn Fucker “rivalry” most often begins in Evanston, making the return trip to Champaign and/or Urbana in February. I blame Delanybot. But that means, given that the return trip is always an Illinois win and usually an Illinois romp, that we get some fun in the first meeting!
Fade the Illini ATS in Welsh-Ryan (or Rosemont or anywhere else)…
Northwestern is 7-6 at home and/or in Chicagoland against Illinois under Chris Collins. I’ve been working on this for at least 20 minutes and I’m already tired of it since CBBRef wisely put all their stats behind a paywall, so I’m not bothering to look it up, but I’d bet Illinois was favored in all but a couple of those donnybrooks.
Tellingly, in the first-ever game Illinois played at Welsh-Ryan Arena in Life After Carmody, it was like Carmody—the King of the Kraken, the man who put the Prince in Princeton Offense, he who I like to call Baron von Backdoor Cut okay no this was a bad idea—had never left: ominously previewed and headlined by Thomas Bruch at The Champaign Room as “Northwestern Preview: Let’s Not Mess This Up,” Illinois…
…well, let’s look at the boxscore, because it gets me very, very, very turned on:
There is nothing about that game that is not poetry. Effectively, six Wildcats played, throwing junk defense at the Illini, who responded by shooting worse than pick a Rutgers team, historically.
…and if you can get odds on Illinois’s shooting, take the Under on those, too.
In addition to that 2014 abomination, here’s how the Illini have shot in Welsh-Ryan and/or the Rosemont All-State Horizon League Center for Monster Truck Rallies:
Jan 2015: 41.9% FG, 33.3% 3pt (Illinois W, 72-67)
Feb 2016: 36.8% FG, 40% 3pt (L, 58-56 **shakes fist in Tre Demps**)
Feb 2017: 45.3% FG, 42.1% 3pt (W, 68-61)
Dec 2017: 41.5% FG, 16.7% 3pt (L, 72-68, OT, in the RASHLCMTR)
Jan 2019: 39.3% FG, 0.0% 3pt (L, 68-66, lololololololololol)
Mar 2019: 44.7% FG, 37.5% 3pt, 33/38 FT (W, 81-76, in the United Center)
Feb 2020: 46.6% FG, 34.8% 3pt (W, 74-66)
Jan 2021: 49.1% FG, 40.7% 3pt (W, 81-56 — the “Kofi Cockburn, Be Tall” strategy was a good one)
Jan 2022: 43.1% FG, 27.8% 3pt (W, 59-56)
Jan 2023: 39.7% FG, 28.6% 3pt, 15 TO, 29 fouls committed lmao (L, 73-60)
Jan 2024: 40.8% FG, 45.8% 3pt (L, 96-91, OT, because Northwestern shot 61% from three and 55% from the field to beat #10 Illinois)
Dec 2024: 37.3% FG, 26.5% 3pt (L, 70-66, OT, for #19 Illinois)
Let’s watch that January 2024 edition to see just how dumb it is:
Anyway, I hope these betting tips are helpful and in no way infuriating.