After defeating the Oklahoma City Thunder, 116-107, on Wednesday to take a 2-1 lead in the NBA Finals, the Indiana Pacers, who started the season as a 66-1 title long shot and started the playoffs at 80-1, are halfway to what could easily be argued as the most improbable NBA championship in recorded history. 

That brings us to the Finals MVP discussion, which now has to start with a Pacers player. Or does it? Before we get to the Finals MVP rankings as I currently see them, keep these few notes in mind:

Only one time in history has a player from the losing team won Finals MVP: Jerry West in 1969, when the Lakers lost to the Celtics in seven games despite West’s 38 points, seven assists and four rebounds per game. Which is to say, barring something happening that has only happened once in the last 55 NBA Finals (which can’t be ruled out, I suppose, given the statistically absurd nature of these playoffs in general and specifically the Pacers’ run), a player from the winning team is going to win Finals MVP. Which brings us to: Who is the favorite to win this championship as the series currently stands? History would suggest the Pacers. Because teams with a 2-1 lead in a best-of-seven series have gone on to win about 80% of the time. However, the Thunder are still a -230 favorite to win this series, according to Caesars Sportsbook, which is listing Indiana, even with a 2-1 lead, as a +190 underdog to finish the deal. Finally, not only has the Finals MVP come from the winning team all but one time, but it’s also usually the leading scorer in that particular series that claims the hardware. Only 12 times has the Finals MVP been awarded to a player who did not lead his team in scoring in that series. 

NBA CHAMPION

LEADING SCORER

FINALS MVP

1972 Lakers

Gail Goodrich

Wilt Chamberlain

1973 Knicks

Bill Bradley

Willis Reed

1977 Blazers

Maurice Lucas

Bill Walton

1978 Bullets

Elvin Hayes

Wes Unseld

1979 Sonics

Dennis Johnson

Gus Williams

1980 Lakers

Magic Johnson

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

1982 Lakers

Magic Johnson

Jamal Wilkes

1986 Celtics

Larry Bird

Kevin Mchale

2004 Pistons

Chauncey Billups

Richard Hamilton

2014 Spurs

Kawhi Leonard

Tony Parker

2015 Warriors

Andre Iguodala

Stephen Curry

2024 Celtics

Jaylen Brown

Jayson Tatum

With all this in mind, let’s get to the Finals MVP rankings. At this point, I see only three realistic candidates. Here’s how they stand after the first three games of the NBA Finals:

Haliburton remains an underdog to win the award because the Thunder are still favored to win the series, but I’m going on what we know right now. And what we know right now is that Indiana is in a far better position to win this series as Haliburton is, and has been, the Pacers’ best player. 

Haliburton’s stats didn’t look great through the first two games (17 points and six assists with eight turnovers), but his impact goes beyond traditional box scores. He was still plus-seven in his first 73 minutes of this series. 

More importantly, Haliburton has the series’ signature moment to this point with his game-winning shot in Game 1. He was also superb in Game 3 with 22 points, 11 assists, nine rebounds, two steals and a block. 

Haliburton is not a score-first point guard, but his selective aggression almost always pays off as the Pacers are 8-1 in these playoffs when he scores at least 20 points. All told, Haliburton is one of just two players in history to average at least seven assists, seven rebounds and three made 3-pointers through the first three games of an NBA Finals. The other to do it? Stephen Curry in 2017. Not bad company. 

Current odds: -220

SGA remains the favorite to win Finals MVP because, again, the Thunder remain the favorite to win the title. You can decide whether you think that line better reflects the actual chances of OKC coming back to win this series or simply the public perception of OKC’s superiority that will drive wagering. 

I am still picking OKC to win the series, as are all but one of my colleagues, but again, that’s my gut and not what I know right now. What I know right now is that OKC is behind the eight ball, but if they are to come back to win this series, SGA would be a virtual lock for MVP. 

Re-picking 2025 NBA Finals: Experts make new predictions after Pacers take 2-1 lead vs. still-favored Thunder

Sam Quinn

Re-picking 2025 NBA Finals: Experts make new predictions after Pacers take 2-1 lead vs. still-favored Thunder

SGA’s stats through the first two games are legendary: 32 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists, 2.3 steals and 1.3 blocks per game. Only two other players in history have averaged at least 30 points, 5 rebounds and five assists through their first three Finals games: Nikola Jokic and Michael Jordan. If the Thunder win, there is no chance anyone other than SGA will walk away with Finals MVP. 

Siakam is within a reasonable range of overtaking Haliburton for Finals MVP if the Pacers are able to win two more games. For starters, he’s Indiana’s leading scorer. As outlined in the table above, there are only 12 instances of a player who led the winning team in scoring but did not win the Finals MVP. 

Siakam was great in Games 1 and 3 and inefficient in Game 2. He’s Indiana’s best one-on-one scorer and has been a vital release valve when OKC’s defense nails down and Indiana needs to get a contested bucket. Siakam has consistently created clean looks for himself by backing overmatched defenders in compromised positions and finishing near the rim or on fadeaways. He’s doing it on both ends, too. 

2025 NBA Finals MVP odds

(Odds via DraftKings as of June 12)