Offseason Approach
Keep building around the young talent, while collecting assets
Actual Cap Space
-$104.7 million
Practical Cap Space
-$92.2 million
Projected Luxury Tax Space
$18.1 million
Under Contract (14)
Saddiq Bey
Bub Carrington
Justin Champagnie (non-guaranteed)
Bilal Coulibaly
Kyshawn George
Anthony Gill (non-guaranteed)
Richaun Holmes ($250,000 guaranteed)
A.J. Johnson
Colby Jones (non-guaranteed)
Corey Kispert
Jaylen Martin (two-way)
Jordan Poole
Alex Sarr
Marcus Smart
Potential Free Agents (4)
Malcolm Brogdon (unrestricted)
Khris Middleton (unrestricted – player option)
J.T. Thor (restricted – two-way)
Tristan Vukcevic (restricted – two-way)
Dead Cap (0)
None
Projected Signing Exceptions
Non-Taxpayer MLE ($14.1 million)
Bi-Annual Exception ($5.1 million)
Notable Trade Exceptions
Jonas Valanciunas ($9.9 million)
Johnny Davis ($5.3 million)
First Round Draft Picks (pre-lottery)
#6
#19
Notable Extension Candidates
Malcolm Brogdon (veteran extension – through June 30)
Colby Jones (veteran extension)
Khris Middleton (veteran extension)
Jordan Poole (veteran extension)
Marcus Smart (veteran extension)
Analysis
Let’s start in a bit of an odd place for an 18-win team: This is how you tank!
Or better put: This is how you fully rebuild!
Five of the Wizards top six players in minutes played this season were on their rookie scale contracts. Yes, that includes Corey Kispert, who is finishing up his rookie scale deal before starting a four-year, $54 million extension. But that group also includes Alex Sarr, Bub Carrington and Kyshawn George, who were rookies, and Bilal Coulibaly, who was finishing up his second year.
In the preseason, Washington’s front office was very transparent that they were still in the “teardown phase” of their rebuild. They said they were going to go young and they followed through. The end result was a terrible record, but it was a terrible record with multiple purposes.
First and foremost, the Wizards are among the group with the best odds of landing the first overall pick and Cooper Flagg. If they don’t land at the top spot, Washington is still in place to land a top-five pick and to come away with one of Dylan Harper, Ace Bailey, V.J. Edgecombe, Tre Johnson, Kasparas Jakucionis or Jeremiah Fears. That means the Wizards are set up to draft a difference maker without having to worry much about fit, because they still need a lot of everything at every position.
The second most important thing this season delivered was terrific experience for Coulibaly, Sarr, Carrington and George. All four youngsters have a long way to go, but all four were vastly improved players by the end of the season vs at the start of it. You could see it statistically and with the eye test. That quartet forms a really nice, complementary core for Washington to build around.
This summer, you can kind of expect more of the same as what we saw over the past year from the Wizards. After all, the front office set the expectation that they were in this rebuild for the long haul. They aren’t going to take any shortcuts now.
Instead of hitting the summer with a bunch of cap space to absorb undesirable contracts from other teams, Washington did that work at the trade deadline. The Wizards acquired both Khris Middleton (who is very likely to opt in for next season) and Marcus Smart.
Middleton and Smart, along with holdover veteran Jordan Poole, don’t really have much of a place on a rebuilding team. None of the three have amazing trade value, although Poole did rebuild his somewhat after a solid season. But none of three have contracts that are drastically under water. Yes, this includes Poole’s deal, which once looked as sunk as a shipwreck.
Middleton and Smart will both be on expiring deals. Both are the type of veteran that a contender can easily talk themselves into taking on. Even better? If that contender has some questionable longer-term salary they’d like to get off of, the Wizards would be happy to be paid to take it on.
Poole is in a bit of a different spot. He’s still got a couple of years and over $65 million remaining on his deal. But he played well enough, and efficiently enough, that a team that really needs scoring could take a look. Again, if there’s a contract that team would like to get off of, Washington is probably ready to talk trade.
Other than Middleton, the Wizards only other free agent of real note is Malcolm Brogdon. Washington didn’t trade Brogdon at the deadline, because there wasn’t a deal to their liking. Now, they can use his Bird rights to help facilitate a sign-and-trade. This season was ruined by injuries for Brogdon, but he’s only a couple of years away from winning Sixth Man of the Year. If he’s not signing on for the MLE with a contender, Washington could help facilitate a sign-and-trade to help Brogdon get where he wants to be.
A sneaky free agent to keep an eye on is two-way player Tristan Vukcevic. The pending restricted free agent showed some real flashes throughout the season. Vukcevic offers some potential of the stretch big-rim protector combo that teams desire. In a frontcourt where Sarr is the only player locked in long-term, Washington would do well to keep Vukcevic around. This could be one where Vukcevic is back initially on another two-way deal, then he’s converted later in the season when a roster spot opens up.
That leads us to the issue of roster spots. As noted above, Washington only has four total free agents this summer, of which two are two-way players. They have a few players on partial/non-guaranteed contracts that could be waiver candidates too, but roster spots are a bit tight for the Wizards.
After adding three first-round rookies last season, Coulibaly the year before and signing Kispert to a four-year extension, the Wizards have two more first-round picks this year. And let’s not forget that A.J. Johnson, another 2024 rookie, was added at the trade deadline. Johnson showed some real potential late in the season. He’s another youngster to keep an eye on.
While it sounds great for a rebuilding team to pile of up draft picks, that only really lasts until you start running out of roster spots. Washington only needs to look at recent vintages of the Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets to see how things go there. Of course, things have worked out pretty great for the Thunder and Rockets, to be sure. The Wizards will have to have a similar sense of ruthlessness with moving on from former first-round picks when roster spots get tight. You can’t afford to get too precious with players, simply because you drafted them. If they aren’t working out, you have to be willing to move on when necessary.
We aren’t there yet, but seven players on rookie scale deals is a lot. And that could lead to deal where Washington moves off their latter first-round pick in a re-balancing trade. Why not kick the can down the road a bit and give yourself more of a spread of the guaranteed rookie scale deals?
The Washington Wizards were terrible this season, but they were a lot of fun to watch. Sure, the team is a ways off from the group that regularly competed for a playoff spot via the Play-In Tournament. But for several years, it felt like the annual appearance in the PIT was the ceiling for those Wizards teams.
This Washington team, under a front office with a steadfast vision, is committed to being better than that. It might take a few years to get there, but the future is bright in Washington. Another fun rookie is joining the group this summer. There will be more action involving veterans moving on and off the roster, with more draft picks coming in too. Things are set up for the Wizards to go to new heights in the years to come.
Updated Analysis Post-Draft Lottery:
Much like the Utah Jazz, the Lottery was a nightmare for the Wizards. They dropped the maximum of four picks from the second pick pre-Lottery to the sixth pick. That’s a brutal blow for a franchise still looking for that franchise guy to lead their rebuild.
Washington won’t get Copper Flagg or Dylan Harper. They likely won’t get Ace Bailey or V.J. Edgecombe either. But they are in position to snag Tre Johnson as a perimeter scorer or Kasparas Jakucionis or Jeremiah Fears as their long-term point guard. One of those three should probably be the pick, as the backcourt remains a bit more unsettled than the wing rotation and the frontcourt.
The Wizards are still going to add another nice young player to their mix. Unfortunately, it just won’t be someone that the franchise can orbit everything around for years to come.